UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem Preview

UFC 141 is upon us, and up for grabs tonight is the #1 heavyweight contender spot when former heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar faces behemoth Dutch kickboxer and current Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem.

What We Know

Although tonight's main event is ostensibly intended to produce a challenger for current champ Junior Dos Santos, it has largely been marketed on the "freak show" angle with far more attention being given to the size of the two fighters than their respective fighting styles.

Alistair Overeem matches Lesnar's size and strength, and as the world's top heavyweight kickboxer seems to have an immense advantage against as tentative striker as Lesnar. Overeem showcased his athleticism and powerful sprawl against Fabricio Werdum, easily shrugging off all takedown attempts from the Brazilian.

Critics of Overeem, however, are quick to point out the distinction between grappling takedowns, which more akin to dragging opponents to the ground - and more explosive folkstyle wrestling takedowns, which rely on driving through takedowns to control the opponent's center of gravity.

At six-foot-five and a lean 260 pounds, Overeem's He-Man action figure physique is as intimidating as any the sport has ever seen. Overeem builds upon that psychological advantage with a style that is noticeably more aggressive in the opening moments of the fight, and few of his opponents are able to weather the devastating combination of kicks, punches and knees.

Those who do last more than one round with Overeem expend a lot of energy getting out of harm's way; Fabricio Werdum, who survived three rounds with the champion, found himself too exhausted to mount any real counter-offense and essentially provided Overeem with three rounds of target practice.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Lesnar, while not considered a well-rounded mixed martial artist, is as pure a fighting athlete as anyone in the game. His simple style of

controlling the pace and nature of the fight is informed by his experience as a Division-1 NCAA champion wrestler; Brock uses outstanding wrestling instincts and superior strength and conditioning to physically overwhelm his opponents. Lesnar's game plan is simple: run people over, take them out of their comfort zones and into his world, and keep them there.

It's also worthy of note that Lesnar, a former professional wrestler who seems comfortable in the role of the heel, is a bully of a finisher who seems energized by momentum. If Lesnar takes Overeem down and is able to draw blood, the hammer fists will start raining down with conviction. As Frank Mir and Randy Couture both know, there's not much chance of escape once one enters Brock Lesnar's comfort zone.

Lesnar's killer instinct contrasts strongly with Overeem's most recent outing, a lackluster title defense which showed flashes of striking brilliance but left audiences bored with Overeem's inability or unwillingness to finish the seemingly outmatched Werdum.

After losing his title rather painfully to a game Cain Velasquez, Lesnar suffered a second bout with diverticulitis which required surgery. Though he appeared strong and healthy at yesterday's weigh-ins, Lesnar will need to overcome the ring rust which seems to hamper fighters who spend long periods away from competition.

One time heavyweight up-and-comers Todd Duffee and Brett Rogers can both testify that Alistair Overeem will likely not give Lesnar very long to decide whether or not he's ready for action.

Fedor Returns to Cure MMA Boredom Epidemic

The world of mixed martial arts finally has something to look forward to. On February 12th, Russian legend Fedor Emelianenko returns to face Brazilian contender Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva in the quarterfinals of Strikeforce's heavyweight Grand Prix.

Who knows why it took so long seal the deal; maybe Fedor's manager Vadim Finkelstein wouldn't budge on that rumored private-label amusement park provision. Who knows and who cares, the ends justify the means for Fedor's fans.

In any case this matchup is a good one. Silva poses as great a threat as Fedor has yet faced for a few reasons:

• He's bigger. Force is equal to mass multiplied by acceleration, folks. Silva is an athletic 260lbs, and at 6'4" he sports a significant reach advantage and will probably look very comfortable on his feet (his ever-improving stand-up game gave Freddie Roach-trained Andrei Arlovski fits last year.) Rogers showed us all how a bigger man could use the cage to keep Fedor from making mischief. I expect Silva to be one of the first of Fedor's opponents to purposefully exploit the size advantage.
• He's dynamic. I first saw Silva in action in a sloppy brawl against Ricco Rodriguez. Both men looked out of practice and slightly out of shape, with Silva getting the split decision victory. Since then, "Bigfoot" shown both improved skill and improved conditioning, and enters this fight at no real disadvantage, on the ground or standing.
• He's patient. Certainly the "Fedor jitters" played a part in the Russian's many shocking wins over larger, faster and stronger opponents. Both Tim Sylvia and Brett Rogers hesitated before the stalking Russian, only to find themselves looking up at the ref and wondering what happened. Antonio Silva came back against Mike Kyle after getting knocked on his ass in the opening moments of the fight; with that lesson in humility behind him it's highly unlikely that Fedor will catch him napping.
• He (now) knows Fedor can be beaten. All Silva needs to know is that what one man can do, another can do. Like the rest of us I'm sure Silva crapped his pants when Fedor tapped. It also probably didn't escape his attention that Fedor, to be blunt, gave up that submission quite carelessly. Fedor's "ad hoc" fighting style doesn't rely as much on opponent-specific strategy so much as real-time analysis and reaction. There's no question that Fedor is willing to take a lick or two while he feels his opponent out for weaknesses; if Silva's smart, he'll be ready to exploit Fedor's inhuman lack of fear the way Fabricio Werdum did.

On the other hand..this is of course Fedor. Though it doesn't need to be said, I'll say it anyway:

• He can do it all. Fedor is as well-rounded as anyone who has ever fought. He isn't big, but he has The Big Punch. He's probably not the fastest athlete fighting today, but his uncanny timing and balance give him the jump on nearly everyone he's fought. He may not be a world-champion competitive Abu Dhabi grappler, but he applies submissions like his life depends on it. He really doesn't neglect any one facet of the game.
• He has experience. Fedor has 32+ professional wins at heavyweight. He's fought strikers, grapplers, pure wrestlers, kickboxers and everything in between. That record really is compounded by the fact that, since he doesn't believe in cutting weight, he for all practical purposes is fighting guys from a higher weight class. Picture Frankie Edgar fighting at middleweight to appreciate the significance of this.
• He's committed to ending the fight. Fedor isn't fighting for points. He treats fighting as problem-solving and his opponents like strategy puzzles; give him a few minutes, and he'll solve the problem. He's ended fights by every means imaginable, from arm-bar to kimura to short-choke to TKO, to one-punch knockout and majority decision. The unified rules of MMA make it technically possible and even advantageous for fighters to secure victory by winning over the judges, Fedor doesn't seem to care about winning the round.
• He's fearless. It has been said of Fedor that he "cuts easy," but that's just statistics out of context. The practical reality is that Fedor presses the action in nearly every fight without any real fear of getting hit. Perhaps he's willing to get tagged once or twice simply as a means to determining the extent of someone's range. The much-larger Brett Rogers, knocked out by Fedor after briefly appearing to have the advantage in their fight, said later that he was thrown off by how "loose" Fedor seemed. Indeed, Fedor's willingness to wade into harm's way against larger opponents is unsettling to behold, and probably even more so from inside the cage.

Fedor vs. Silva can go either way, it really can. Size considerations notwithstanding, both fighters are skilled, tough and smart, so I won't predict a winner. I hope only for a good fight, and knowing what I know about these two fighters I don't expect anything less.