UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson - Something to Prove vs. Nothing to Lose

With the UFC's experimental FOX television debut safely behind us, commercial-free MMA action returns tonight headlined by one of the most anticipated main events of the year. Former UFC light heavyweight champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua faces off with Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Dan Henderson in a long-awaited meeting of the former PRIDE rivals.

What We Know

Mauricio Rua entered the UFC to high hopes, but his Octagon career has been an emotional roller coaster for fans. After dropping a closely contested title decision to former champion Lyoto Machida, Rua bounced back and won the belt in a rematch, only to be immediately sidelined with knee surgery.

Following a long recovery, Rua returned to defend his title only to have it summarily stripped away by Jon "Bones" Jones in a one-sided TKO loss which was not particularly competitive.

Rua's most recent outing, a brilliant first-round knockout of Griffin which avenged that inauspicious UFC debut, showed a return to form the Brazilian must maintain to get back into contention. A dominant victory over Dan Henderson might fast-track Shogun to another title shot.

At 41 years of age Henderson may not have time on his side, but his dramatic victory over the legendary Fedor Emelianenko proved he can still get the job done against younger and more aggressive opponents.

Stung early and knocked down early by Fedor's frenetic striking attack, the cagey veteran was able to reverse positions and deliver a blind-side uppercut that dropped Fedor and led to a first-round TKO.

Both Rua and Henderson have made names for themselves as strikers, though with markedly different styles. Rua uses speed, great boxing and devastating leg and body kicks to keep opponents on the defensive, while Henderson relies more on timing and power to land the big overhand right which has become his signature.

While Henderson's superb ability to close the distance and connect will likely factor into Rua's strategy entering this fight, he will probably be more focused on nullifying Henderson's distinct advantage as a wrestler. By using superior quickness and landing the same vicious leg kicks he used to dismantle Lyoto Machida, Rua may be able to wear down the veteran wrestler and chip away at his ability to shoot.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Superstitious fans will appreciate the fact that Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski, Brett Rogers, Fabricio Werdum, and Antonio Silva each fought Fedor Emelianenko and then immediately turned in dismal follow-up performances. Though it's improbably Henderson will fall completely flat in his return to the Octagon, turning in a strong performance against Rua will mean breaking the "Fedor Curse."

Had he decided to retire, Henderson's win over Emelianenko would have provided a definitive conclusion to a long and illustrious MMA career.

Rua, on the other hand, is just one fight removed from a lopsided beat-down at the hands of Jon Jones, and at 29 years old is only reaching the prime of his fighting career.

Like most fights, this one may be about unfinished business. All things being equal (or a wash, anyway,) the odds usually favor the fighter who has something left to prove.

What to Expect from Rua vs. Jones

UFC 128 dodged a bullet. The addition of Jon Jones as a replacement opponent for 205-lb champ Mauricio Rua almost certainly saves the event from being relegated to ad-supported broadcast on Spike TV. Jones' star power lends interest to a main card decimated by fighter injuries, and perhaps makes Saturday night's headliner the year's most anticipated to date.

What We Know

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua entered the UFC over three years ago greeted with justifiably high expectations. The Brazilian phenom's record in PRIDE included wins over Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, Mark Coleman, Kevin Randleman, as well as a pair of wins over K-1 (and current Strikeforce) terror Alistair Overeem. Rua's introduction to UFC fans at UFC 76:Knockout failed to deliver as promised, as the former PRIDE Grand Prix winner quickly ran out of gas and eventually succumbed to a late choke applied by cardio nightmare Forrest "Lungs" Griffin.

Since his inauspicious American debut, Rua has undergone two knee surgeries to correct an injury which had apparently hindered his performance, and has steadily improved. A sloppy rematch victory over an aging Mark Coleman in 2009 was followed up with an emphatic KO of UFC hall of famer Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell, fast-tracking Rua to a title shot in Octob

er 2009 with elusive karate-man Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida. Despite battering Machida for five rounds and winning over fans, Rua somehow failed to win over the judges and dropped the split decision. Confident in his strategy against Machida and with a serious grudge, "Shogun" preempted the judges altogether the following May in the ensuing rematch, scoring an emphatic first-round KO to silence the critics and seize the UFC light heavyweight title.

Jon "Bones" Jones has been on a steady ascent since his UFC debut in the summer of 2008 against Andre Gusmao. Jones followed up that decision victory with another unanimous decision over veteran brawler Stephan Bonnar in a surprise crowd-pleaser. That match introduced fans to Jones' spectacular wrestling and striking skills, but also raised questions about his gas tank as he spent much of the third round backpedaling from Bonnar.

Those questions remain, though in fairness to Jones only because he has since managed to finish every fight in the first or second round. Jones' win streak in the UFC currently stands at six (not including a questionable DQ loss to Matt Hamill) and is capped off most recently by a dominating submission win over Ryan Bader. Jones surprised everyone by manhandling Bader, a powerful wrestler with deceptively good hands who was expected to give Jones his toughest match-up to date, and after controlling him from the opening moments of the fight finished Bader in Round 2 with a brutal modified guillotine.

What The Tapes Don't Show

Rua reacted to his bitter decision loss to Machida by resolving to make MMA's much-debated scoring system a non-issue. His subsequent first-round KO of Machida was as dramatic and resounding a victory as any title bout in recent memory, looking more like a sixth round than a do-over, but was the result of reflection and study. Wagering that Machida would be preoccupied with defending against his vicious leg and body kicks, Rua's camp spent more time working on his punches and studying Machida's counter-offensive habits in detail, and implemented their game plan with devastating success. Rua's skillful dismantling of the elusive and unorthodox Machida provided coaches and fighters with a clinic on strategy planning and execution.

Speaking of strategy planning and execution, the Greg Jackson-trained Jon Jones hails from arguably the most successful camp in the business. Despite his being the UFC hype machine's employee of the month, Jones is a well-rounded fighter with a much more patient and dynamic game than his highlight reel indicates. He possesses freakish reach, athleticism and exceptionally functional wrestling, but his most dangerous attributes may be his creative problem-solving ability and discipline. Jones seems to have that rare uncanny ability to identify and exploit weaknesses in real-time, a trait reminiscent of Fedor Emelianenko, and as such doesn't waste a lot of energy making mistakes for his opponents to capitalize on.

What Might Happen

Rua and Jones are both thinkers, and neither is likely to charge and brawl. Knowing how (A.) how patiently Rua approached the Machida fight and (B.) that Jones will be cornered by Greg Jackson, I expect this fight to be more of a chess match than a barn burner, and in a five-round fight that means cardio could become a factor. While Rua erased all questions about his conditioning during his five-round war against Machida, it remains to be seen if Jones has the gas tank to keep up, should this fight even make it to the championship rounds.

Styles make fights, and anticipating the outcome of this stylistic match-up is particularly problematic. I expect each fighter to push the action towards each other's weaknesses, but it's hard to say what those are. Clearly Jones' size and reach advantage should be a factor, and while Shogun isn't helpless on the ground I don't expect to see him out-wrestle a wrestler like Jones. On the other hand, Jones' thin lower legs won't be able withstand the savage muy thai leg kicks Rua favors; the "shin factor" may play heavily in the direction the fight takes, if it doesn't end the fight abruptly in gruesome fashion (ala Corey Hill).

For all the problems the UFC encountered solidifying a main card, the Rua vs. Jones title bout makes this event worth tuning in.

And even if the main event doesn't deliver, perhaps Dana White will enter the Octagon and explain to Joe Rogan how Zuffa's recent acquisition of the fans' and fighters' only alternative to the UFC will actually benefit the fans and fighters.

UFC 113: Rua's Rock Beats Machida's Scissors

Former PRIDE legend Mauricio "Shogun" Rua seized the UFC light heavyweight title in stunning fashion Saturday night, bringing dramatic closure to months of debate and speculation.

Rua's title challenge last October gave the heretofore unbeaten Lyoto Machida his most competitive fight to date in the Octagon, a five-round war that left "The Dragon" battered and exhausted. With an unscathed Rua smiling in anticipation of having his hand raised in victory, Bruce Buffer instead announced Machida as the winner by unanimous decision to a chorus of boos.

Many fans, analysts, and fighters felt Rua's relentless pace, physical conditioning and barrage of devastating kicks did more to score him points, an opinion shared even by outspoken UFC head Dana White. White immediately called for a rematch, while Rua returned home, unscathed, to quietly formulate a plan to improve upon apparent perfection.

Rua returned to face Machida for the second time this past weekend, and brought with him an unwavering determination to decide the outcome of the fight without involving the judges. Both fighters clearly did their homework; Machida began timing Rua's leg kicks to set up a counter immediately and also took Rua down early in the fight, while Rua showed excellent scrambling in anticipation of a ground fight. The fight looked to be every bit as active and competitive as their first.

It was Rua, however, who won the high-stakes strategic gamble that has been described by MMA writer Darren Wong as "rock, paper and scissors." Machida, who after October's title defense was left with broken ribs, welts and deep bruising, wagered that Rua would again rely on the kicks he had so much success with in their first fight. It seems that Rua, on the other hand, anticipated this adjustment on the part of the Machida camp and instead used those expectations to set up his boxing. Rua gambled that Machida would be so focused on timing and countering his kicks that he'd leave himself vulnerable, and that is precisely what happened.

As Machida delivered his trademark straight left, Rua slipped the punch and came over the top with a hard overhand right on the side of Machida's head that buckled the champ's knees. Rua wasted no time and pounced, finishing the champ with four or five clean strikes from the full mount position before Yves Lavigne could step in to yank him off his motionless opponent.

After a slow start which included lackluster performances against Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman, Mauricio Rua has been born again hard as the UFC's undisputed light-heavyweight champion of the world. The division's belt has changed hands five times in the past three years, but after Saturday night's dominating and aggressive performance by Shogun, I can't see him going anywhere for a while. Rua looks every bit the part of the best 205-lb fighter in the world.