UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson - Something to Prove vs. Nothing to Lose

With the UFC's experimental FOX television debut safely behind us, commercial-free MMA action returns tonight headlined by one of the most anticipated main events of the year. Former UFC light heavyweight champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua faces off with Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Dan Henderson in a long-awaited meeting of the former PRIDE rivals.

What We Know

Mauricio Rua entered the UFC to high hopes, but his Octagon career has been an emotional roller coaster for fans. After dropping a closely contested title decision to former champion Lyoto Machida, Rua bounced back and won the belt in a rematch, only to be immediately sidelined with knee surgery.

Following a long recovery, Rua returned to defend his title only to have it summarily stripped away by Jon "Bones" Jones in a one-sided TKO loss which was not particularly competitive.

Rua's most recent outing, a brilliant first-round knockout of Griffin which avenged that inauspicious UFC debut, showed a return to form the Brazilian must maintain to get back into contention. A dominant victory over Dan Henderson might fast-track Shogun to another title shot.

At 41 years of age Henderson may not have time on his side, but his dramatic victory over the legendary Fedor Emelianenko proved he can still get the job done against younger and more aggressive opponents.

Stung early and knocked down early by Fedor's frenetic striking attack, the cagey veteran was able to reverse positions and deliver a blind-side uppercut that dropped Fedor and led to a first-round TKO.

Both Rua and Henderson have made names for themselves as strikers, though with markedly different styles. Rua uses speed, great boxing and devastating leg and body kicks to keep opponents on the defensive, while Henderson relies more on timing and power to land the big overhand right which has become his signature.

While Henderson's superb ability to close the distance and connect will likely factor into Rua's strategy entering this fight, he will probably be more focused on nullifying Henderson's distinct advantage as a wrestler. By using superior quickness and landing the same vicious leg kicks he used to dismantle Lyoto Machida, Rua may be able to wear down the veteran wrestler and chip away at his ability to shoot.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Superstitious fans will appreciate the fact that Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski, Brett Rogers, Fabricio Werdum, and Antonio Silva each fought Fedor Emelianenko and then immediately turned in dismal follow-up performances. Though it's improbably Henderson will fall completely flat in his return to the Octagon, turning in a strong performance against Rua will mean breaking the "Fedor Curse."

Had he decided to retire, Henderson's win over Emelianenko would have provided a definitive conclusion to a long and illustrious MMA career.

Rua, on the other hand, is just one fight removed from a lopsided beat-down at the hands of Jon Jones, and at 29 years old is only reaching the prime of his fighting career.

Like most fights, this one may be about unfinished business. All things being equal (or a wash, anyway,) the odds usually favor the fighter who has something left to prove.

UFC 113: Rua's Rock Beats Machida's Scissors

Former PRIDE legend Mauricio "Shogun" Rua seized the UFC light heavyweight title in stunning fashion Saturday night, bringing dramatic closure to months of debate and speculation.

Rua's title challenge last October gave the heretofore unbeaten Lyoto Machida his most competitive fight to date in the Octagon, a five-round war that left "The Dragon" battered and exhausted. With an unscathed Rua smiling in anticipation of having his hand raised in victory, Bruce Buffer instead announced Machida as the winner by unanimous decision to a chorus of boos.

Many fans, analysts, and fighters felt Rua's relentless pace, physical conditioning and barrage of devastating kicks did more to score him points, an opinion shared even by outspoken UFC head Dana White. White immediately called for a rematch, while Rua returned home, unscathed, to quietly formulate a plan to improve upon apparent perfection.

Rua returned to face Machida for the second time this past weekend, and brought with him an unwavering determination to decide the outcome of the fight without involving the judges. Both fighters clearly did their homework; Machida began timing Rua's leg kicks to set up a counter immediately and also took Rua down early in the fight, while Rua showed excellent scrambling in anticipation of a ground fight. The fight looked to be every bit as active and competitive as their first.

It was Rua, however, who won the high-stakes strategic gamble that has been described by MMA writer Darren Wong as "rock, paper and scissors." Machida, who after October's title defense was left with broken ribs, welts and deep bruising, wagered that Rua would again rely on the kicks he had so much success with in their first fight. It seems that Rua, on the other hand, anticipated this adjustment on the part of the Machida camp and instead used those expectations to set up his boxing. Rua gambled that Machida would be so focused on timing and countering his kicks that he'd leave himself vulnerable, and that is precisely what happened.

As Machida delivered his trademark straight left, Rua slipped the punch and came over the top with a hard overhand right on the side of Machida's head that buckled the champ's knees. Rua wasted no time and pounced, finishing the champ with four or five clean strikes from the full mount position before Yves Lavigne could step in to yank him off his motionless opponent.

After a slow start which included lackluster performances against Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman, Mauricio Rua has been born again hard as the UFC's undisputed light-heavyweight champion of the world. The division's belt has changed hands five times in the past three years, but after Saturday night's dominating and aggressive performance by Shogun, I can't see him going anywhere for a while. Rua looks every bit the part of the best 205-lb fighter in the world.