Awesome Fights This Weekend on UFC on FOX 3

I wasn't expecting much from UFC on FOX 3 until I actually looked at the main card. There are some badass fights this weekend. (Commercials do suck, but at least they're produced better than the hour's worth of house ad filler we are forced to sit through during a typical $60 pay-per-view broadcast.) Here are the three fights I'm most enthused about:


(Note: though I fail to mention Pat Barry here, it's no disrespect and quite the opposite in fact...the guy brings it every fight, win, lose or double-KO. If Barry's on the card, entertainment is a foregone conclusion.)

1. Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz
Until he ran into the neutralizing energy vortex that is Benson Henderson, Jim Miller was on the fast track to a title shot. Miller is a stud at lightweight; he seems stronger than average in the class, has a solid foundation in wrestling, throws bombs, and most importantly fights a smart game. Like most victims of natural disasters, he simply had no way of preparing for Benson Henderson until it was too late. 

Nate Diaz is the perfect test to see if Miller is still a champion simply waiting to happen. Diaz is experienced, fearless, creative and simply does not fatigue. He also sports a big reach advantage over Miller which, like his older brother Nick, he can put to great use landing accurate shots in volume. If Jim Miller's going to survive Diaz' "rock-em-sock-em-robot" routine he'll have to start fast and put him away early (or otherwise suplex him for three rounds, a la Rory McDonald.)

2. Josh Koscheck vs. Johnny Hendricks

Koscheck and Hendricks have something in common: neither have any interest in wrestling Jon Fitch for three rounds inside the Octagon. Hendricks took the fight anyway, though, which became an instant classic when Hendricks one-punch KO'd the notoriously durable Fitch in just under 12 seconds. Though Hendricks' historic win brought him many new fans overnight, his MMA career is still young and there's no question he still feels he has a lot to prove.

Meanwhile, Fitch's close friend and former training partner Koscheck has proven nearly unbeatable, acting almost as a proverbial filter between the UFC's potential and bonafide welterweight contenders. Outside of current champ George St. Pierre, no fighter seems able to match Koscheck's wrestling ability, a fact which seems to have given him the confidence to assume his role of the UFC's token headhunter. While the resilient Mike Pierce gave him fits in their split decision slugfest back in February, Koscheck's veteran composure and superior wrestling secured him the victory. For Johnny Hendricks to get the upset victory, he'll have overcome a considerable experience gap while also contending with (arguably) the most aggressive striker he has faced to date in Josh Koscheck

3. Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares

Of the possible guest stars currently being considered for future episodes of "The Anderson Silva Show," Alan Belcher is probably the most intriguing. A promising middleweight whose career was nearly ended by eye surgery, Belcher is an exciting, dynamic and incredibly well-rounded whose UFC highlight reel includes dumping Patrick Cote upside his head in a picture-perfect pile driver. 

If Belcher normally throws a lot of leg kicks, we shouldn't be surprised if he alters his game plan on Saturday night when he faces the infamous leg-mangler known as Rousimar Palhares. Short, stock and powerful, Rousimar has become known for his unique mastery of offensive Brazilian jiu-jitsu, having won 4 of his last 5 victories by way of leg lock. So effective are Palhares' submissions that Belcher will undoubtedly have to account for it or risk being ensnared in the Brazilian's iron grip.

Historically, I've often found that cards and match-ups which look only mildly entertaining on paper usually play out that way. Conversely, cards which look like they'll be exciting nearly always deliver. I don't know why that is, or what it means. Maybe the UFC matchmakers just know what they're doing. 

Anyway, be sure tune in Saturday night. These look like good fights, and I'll be surprised if I'm wrong.

Five Reasons Dos Santos vs. Fedor Makes Sense

The future looks grim for UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Overeem. Though Alistair Overeem's failed drug test comes as no surprise to those who have followed him since his lanky K-1 days, the timing couldn't be much worse. Desperate fans have taken to lobbying via Twitter for journeyman Mark Hunt as a potential replacement to face Junior Dos Santos (a rumor summarily quashed by UFC President Dana White.)

With the short list of suitable replacements looking very short indeed, a novel idea would be for White to sign Russian legend Fedor Emelianenko to challenge Dos Santos for the UFC heavyweight title.

Given White's acrimonious history with Fedor's management, the possibility seems as unlikely to ever become a reality as it is intriguing, but there is real logic behind it. Considering White's promotional savvy and history of confounding expectations, one should never say never.

Here are five reasons why Dos Santos vs. Fedor actually makes a lot of sense.

#1: Contention Doesn't Matter, It's a Business

Although Fedor's recent record may not seem to warrant an immediate UFC title shot, the determination of UFC contenders historically seems more academic than quantitative. From Forest Griffin and Brock Lesnar to Dan Hardy and more, many fan favorites have been given a fast track to the title shot as matchmakers strategically select the most marketable and stylistically interesting fighters from their pool of candidates.

While the UFC's "black box" title contention algorithm may not satisfy purists or statisticians, their fan-driven approach to matchmaking has paid off with record pay-per-view sales, and there's no question Dana White has done a great job selling fans the fights they want to see.

#2: Marketability

Whether you consider him the world's greatest or completely overrated, Fedor Emelianenko is without question responsible for some of the most exciting moments in mixed martial arts history. With a fearless style that keeps fans around the world on the edges of their seats, Fedor's star power gives him the unique leverage to repeatedly pass on a UFC contract and yet still maintain a lucrative fighting career.

Junior Dos Santos has more in common with Fedor than perhaps any other professional fighter. The Brazilian's jovial, everyman personality and sense of humility stands in ironic contrast to the reputation he has earned as the world's most feared heavyweight striker.

For a young sport still struggling with an image problem, a main event pairing two world-class fighters and exemplary sportsmen gives the UFC an opportunity to make inroads into markets their current brand cannot reach.

#3: Personnel Shortages

The recent departure of pay-per-view goliath Brock Lesnar leaves a gaping hole in the UFC's heavyweight division. With main event regulars Shane Carwin and "Minotauro" Noguiera out due to injury and younger prospects Brendan Schaub and Matt Mitrione ostensibly out of contention due to recent losses, the UFC is short on any obvious choices for a replacement for Overeem.

The addition of Fedor Emelianenko to the UFC's heavyweight division not only gives Zuffa an instant replacement for Overeem but a monopoly on MMA's heavyweight superstars. Although Fedor is undersized compared to the UFC's heavyweights, he has made a career of fighting and beating bigger, stronger opponents (including two former UFC heavyweight champions, Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski.)

#4: The Timing is Perfect

This spring's run of twelve consecutive weeks without a pay-per-view event represents the longest UFC pay-per-view drought in recent history. With The Ultimate Fighter TV ratings on a steady decline, the undoing of Dos Santos vs. Overeem threatens to slam the brakes on the UFC's summer momentum.

Meanwhile, Fedor Emelianenko has been training all spring, ostensibly in preparation for a tentative early summer match up with a yet-unnamed opponent from a short list of mid-tier fighters. After three consecutive losses in Strikeforce - the first of his career - Fedor's two most recent victories show improvement upon his exciting but arguably reckless style.

At a time when MMA is getting most of its publicity for the wrong reasons (see: TRT, pro wrestling,) the addition of Fedor to UFC 146 would bring much-needed appeal and instant legitimacy to the event.

#5: It's a Win-Win Situation for Dana White

Since walking away from tedious and protracted negotiations with Fedor's management two years ago, White has gone on the record to remind the world just how "overrated" he believed the Russian fighter always was. In considering Emelianenko as a last-minute replacement for Overeem, therefore, White may seem to be faced with a dilemma and risk looking like a hypocrite.

As a savvy business promoter, however, White probably knows he can't lose. If Dos Santos wins, White was right about Fedor all along, but conversely if Fedor manages to upset Dos Santos, the world's greatest is now the exclusive property of Zuffa, LLC. Either way, there's no risk here for Zuffa. Everyone wins.

UFC 129: GSP vs. Shields Pre-Fight Analysis

Toronto hosts the UFC on April 30th in a first-ever stadium event which will be the largest (and loudest) North American event in MMA history. UFC 129's main event finds welterweight champion George St. Pierre facing top contender and former Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields. Shields, promised a title shot while in negotiations with Dana White, enters a UFC 170-lb division effectively cleaned out by the champion. While fans haven't exactly been clamoring to see two elite wrestlers face off in a five-round main event, in the current welterweight landscape this match up is the only that makes sense.

What We Know

Since reclaiming his belt in 2008 from Matt Serra, George St. Pierre has been a juggernaut at 170 pounds. Dominating victories over the world-class welterweights including Jon Fitch, Thiago Alves, BJ Penn and Josh Koscheck - have fueled reasonable speculation about a move to the UFC's middleweight division.

Making St. Pierre's record more impressive is the fact that in five title defenses, the champion hasn't lost a single round on the score cards. For all the bold predictions and best efforts of the UFC's welterweight contenders, not one has been able to find an answer for GSP's superior athleticism or his relentless and well-rounded attack.

Enter Jake Shields - a relative UFC newcomer and veteran problem-solver who has made a career out of exceeding expectations. With superior wrestling, conditioning and jiu-jitsu, the former collegiate wrestling national champion and top grappler has managed to out-work or otherwise submit many of the world's top fighters over the last six years; Shields' 15-fight win streak includes victories over Carlos Condit, Yushin Okami and most recently Dan Henderson.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Arguably the most athletic fighter in the division, St. Pierre wins - and makes it look pretty easy - by taking opponents out of their comfort zones and keeping them there. While he has been criticized recently as "boring" for not finishing more fights, the game plans he chooses to employ are varied and dynamic, and often involve attacking (and beating) opponents at their strengths. The champion's workhorse style doesn't have the instant replay appeal of fighters like Fedor Emelianenko or Anderson Silva, but to date St. Pierre's smothering offense has proven nearly impossible for any opponent to overcome.

Challenger Jake Shields brings a potentially problematic set of attributes to the table as St. Pierre's opponent. While the champion has handled kick boxers, muy thai fighters and wrestlers all with relative ease, he has yet to face anyone with Shields' combination of wrestling, submissions and most importantly - experience. As champion, Shields has had his chin, his conditioning and his skills tested and has always managed to emerge victorious. His proven ability to bounce back, turn the tables and find a way to win is what sets Jake Shields apart from all previous challengers.

Meanwhile, George St. Pierre hasn't lost a single round since regaining his belt. Members of Shields' camp have an explanation for St. Pierre's routine dominance over the division, pointing out that none his opponents have been able to test the champion. Shields' key to victory may be to take a page out of the champion's book and drag him out of his comfort zone into unknown territory.

How The Fight Could Go

Another key to solving St. Pierre may be understanding his philosophy, which treats MMA more like chess than brawling. One after another, St. Pierre's challengers swing for the fences, strike out and eventually crumble under his pressure. For all the explanations and analyses made, St. Pierre has not yet faced an opponent who can match his simple desire to win.

On Saturday night, however, that may change. Many believe Shields' submission skills are what make him such a dangerous contender, but the California native's cast-iron work ethic and "never-say-die" attitude that make him unique. With the heart of a champion and the experience to match, Jake Shields could be the first guy to take GSP into dark water.

Then again...he may not. George St. Pierre may simply be better than everyone else.

What to Expect from Rua vs. Jones

UFC 128 dodged a bullet. The addition of Jon Jones as a replacement opponent for 205-lb champ Mauricio Rua almost certainly saves the event from being relegated to ad-supported broadcast on Spike TV. Jones' star power lends interest to a main card decimated by fighter injuries, and perhaps makes Saturday night's headliner the year's most anticipated to date.

What We Know

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua entered the UFC over three years ago greeted with justifiably high expectations. The Brazilian phenom's record in PRIDE included wins over Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, Mark Coleman, Kevin Randleman, as well as a pair of wins over K-1 (and current Strikeforce) terror Alistair Overeem. Rua's introduction to UFC fans at UFC 76:Knockout failed to deliver as promised, as the former PRIDE Grand Prix winner quickly ran out of gas and eventually succumbed to a late choke applied by cardio nightmare Forrest "Lungs" Griffin.

Since his inauspicious American debut, Rua has undergone two knee surgeries to correct an injury which had apparently hindered his performance, and has steadily improved. A sloppy rematch victory over an aging Mark Coleman in 2009 was followed up with an emphatic KO of UFC hall of famer Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell, fast-tracking Rua to a title shot in Octob

er 2009 with elusive karate-man Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida. Despite battering Machida for five rounds and winning over fans, Rua somehow failed to win over the judges and dropped the split decision. Confident in his strategy against Machida and with a serious grudge, "Shogun" preempted the judges altogether the following May in the ensuing rematch, scoring an emphatic first-round KO to silence the critics and seize the UFC light heavyweight title.

Jon "Bones" Jones has been on a steady ascent since his UFC debut in the summer of 2008 against Andre Gusmao. Jones followed up that decision victory with another unanimous decision over veteran brawler Stephan Bonnar in a surprise crowd-pleaser. That match introduced fans to Jones' spectacular wrestling and striking skills, but also raised questions about his gas tank as he spent much of the third round backpedaling from Bonnar.

Those questions remain, though in fairness to Jones only because he has since managed to finish every fight in the first or second round. Jones' win streak in the UFC currently stands at six (not including a questionable DQ loss to Matt Hamill) and is capped off most recently by a dominating submission win over Ryan Bader. Jones surprised everyone by manhandling Bader, a powerful wrestler with deceptively good hands who was expected to give Jones his toughest match-up to date, and after controlling him from the opening moments of the fight finished Bader in Round 2 with a brutal modified guillotine.

What The Tapes Don't Show

Rua reacted to his bitter decision loss to Machida by resolving to make MMA's much-debated scoring system a non-issue. His subsequent first-round KO of Machida was as dramatic and resounding a victory as any title bout in recent memory, looking more like a sixth round than a do-over, but was the result of reflection and study. Wagering that Machida would be preoccupied with defending against his vicious leg and body kicks, Rua's camp spent more time working on his punches and studying Machida's counter-offensive habits in detail, and implemented their game plan with devastating success. Rua's skillful dismantling of the elusive and unorthodox Machida provided coaches and fighters with a clinic on strategy planning and execution.

Speaking of strategy planning and execution, the Greg Jackson-trained Jon Jones hails from arguably the most successful camp in the business. Despite his being the UFC hype machine's employee of the month, Jones is a well-rounded fighter with a much more patient and dynamic game than his highlight reel indicates. He possesses freakish reach, athleticism and exceptionally functional wrestling, but his most dangerous attributes may be his creative problem-solving ability and discipline. Jones seems to have that rare uncanny ability to identify and exploit weaknesses in real-time, a trait reminiscent of Fedor Emelianenko, and as such doesn't waste a lot of energy making mistakes for his opponents to capitalize on.

What Might Happen

Rua and Jones are both thinkers, and neither is likely to charge and brawl. Knowing how (A.) how patiently Rua approached the Machida fight and (B.) that Jones will be cornered by Greg Jackson, I expect this fight to be more of a chess match than a barn burner, and in a five-round fight that means cardio could become a factor. While Rua erased all questions about his conditioning during his five-round war against Machida, it remains to be seen if Jones has the gas tank to keep up, should this fight even make it to the championship rounds.

Styles make fights, and anticipating the outcome of this stylistic match-up is particularly problematic. I expect each fighter to push the action towards each other's weaknesses, but it's hard to say what those are. Clearly Jones' size and reach advantage should be a factor, and while Shogun isn't helpless on the ground I don't expect to see him out-wrestle a wrestler like Jones. On the other hand, Jones' thin lower legs won't be able withstand the savage muy thai leg kicks Rua favors; the "shin factor" may play heavily in the direction the fight takes, if it doesn't end the fight abruptly in gruesome fashion (ala Corey Hill).

For all the problems the UFC encountered solidifying a main card, the Rua vs. Jones title bout makes this event worth tuning in.

And even if the main event doesn't deliver, perhaps Dana White will enter the Octagon and explain to Joe Rogan how Zuffa's recent acquisition of the fans' and fighters' only alternative to the UFC will actually benefit the fans and fighters.

What I Learned from "The Ultimate Fighter: Season 10"

Disclaimer: it's a "reality" show. What we're being shown is probably to a large degree scripted, set up or otherwise edited into the story we finally see each episode. Chances are, there is a lot more than meets the eye. Producers make a show that needs to get ratings in order to sell advertising, period.

Clever editing from a talented production team notwithstanding, I learned the following from this season of "The Ultimate Fighter", featuring 16 competing heavyweights:

The Good

• Rashad Evans is a natural-born teacher. As talented as he is as one of the world's top light-heavies, his maturity and his ability to articulate himself make him perhaps even more well-suited to train other fighters. The proof is in the pudding; Team Evans went 7-1 in the preliminary fights and Evans' pick, Brendan Schaub, scored the upset of the year when he took out Coach Rampage's meal ticket, behemoth Marcus Jones. Very impressive work, Coach Rashad. The only time viewers saw Rashad come close to losing his cool was on the half-dozen or so occasions he and Rampage crossed paths to engage in smack-talk.
• Kimbo Slice is an earnest, humble and even charming guy trying to make a living as a fighter. He's come a long way since his days at Elite XC working as an entertainer rather than a mixed martial artist. Kimbo has come a long way emotionally, and openly acknowledges his weaknesses as readily as his strengths. As long as he continues to strengthen mentally, his lack of well-roundedness will not hold him back because (A.) the guy has killer instinct, and (B.) he has a lot of experience damaging people with his fists.
• Wes Sims was born for reality TV. It was really difficult to be bored when this guy was on screen. What kind of a person dons a Ninja costume and patiently stalks someone shooting baskets at night, just to entertain themselves? You couldn't script this kind of stuff if you wanted to.

The Bad

• Roy "Big Country" Nelson is obviously a talented fighter, coasting to the semi-final bracket with no more than the bare minimum effort necessary to secure the "W," a style which did not ingratiate him with UFC head Dana White. Roy's skillful clinic against a cocky James McSweeney finally showed us what he's capable of when forced to perform, but that may be only good enough for "The Ultimate Fighter" because in a stacked UFC heavyweight division, Nelson won't be given the chance to coast.
• Rampage Jackson, as a coach, doesn't pretend to even want to inspire the cooperation of his fighters. He wants them to win, period. When his fighters don't win - which was often - he takes his ball and goes home.
• Ostensibly a gentle giant, Marcus "The Darkness" Jones demonstrated some questionable judgement by getting in the face of Matt Mitrione over an accidental eye-poke Matt threw against teammate Scott Junk. Junk's doctor told him his fighting career was in jeopardy, which however unfortunate has nothing to do with Mitrione. Jones somehow missed the "unintentional" part of the whole eye-poke incident, which in all honesty occurred during a fight Mitrione was dominating. Note to Jones: when you're huge and dangerous, it isn't your prerogative to get angry to the point of being physical over absolutely nothing. There are places for people who behave like that, places where you get to work out a lot, wear a special outfit and have your own little room with lots of time to yourself.

The Ugly

• English kickboxer James McSweeney grew more cocky with each win, even to the point of mercilessly antagonizing troubled outsider Zak Jensen. A social misfit amongst this season's lot, the quiet and self-conscious Jensen was the target of a series of pranks by his house mates from day one. Episode 11 saw McSweeney lock the apparently claustrophobic Jensen in his own bathroom, a prank Jensen responded to by physically attacking McSweeney (albeit fruitlessly). McSweeney's bullying, rather than being entertaining, spoke volumes about his lack of maturity and it was no surprise to see him lose his next fight decisively to veteran Roy Nelson.
• Let's be honest: this season kind of sucked. Each episode's teaser followed the same pathetic "Will Kimbo fight again?" theme to build anticipation and elicit viewers, and each episode again dismissed that far-fetched notion while hastily introducing some ancillary manufactured drama, like Matt Mitrione.
• Mitrione drew criticism for his bizarre antics, which included exaggerated head injury symptoms, team subterfuge, and drinking other people's orange juice. In hindsight, most his antagonistic behaviors were probably the work of a very skilled mind-game practitioner (Mitrione was a pro defensive tackle). That aside, Mitrione is in the right place; to quote Dana White: "The kid can PUNCH!" He's one of the more naturally athletic fighters from season 10, and throws hurtin' bombs from a long reach. His disappointing quarter-final loss to James McSweeney was probably due to a combination of inexperience and panic. As Rashad Evans pointed out, Mitrione hit the mat with his hand ready to tap, before McSweeney even had the choke properly secured. There are a lot of fighters Mitrione could beat, but he has to stop beating himself first.