UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem Preview

UFC 141 is upon us, and up for grabs tonight is the #1 heavyweight contender spot when former heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar faces behemoth Dutch kickboxer and current Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem.

What We Know

Although tonight's main event is ostensibly intended to produce a challenger for current champ Junior Dos Santos, it has largely been marketed on the "freak show" angle with far more attention being given to the size of the two fighters than their respective fighting styles.

Alistair Overeem matches Lesnar's size and strength, and as the world's top heavyweight kickboxer seems to have an immense advantage against as tentative striker as Lesnar. Overeem showcased his athleticism and powerful sprawl against Fabricio Werdum, easily shrugging off all takedown attempts from the Brazilian.

Critics of Overeem, however, are quick to point out the distinction between grappling takedowns, which more akin to dragging opponents to the ground - and more explosive folkstyle wrestling takedowns, which rely on driving through takedowns to control the opponent's center of gravity.

At six-foot-five and a lean 260 pounds, Overeem's He-Man action figure physique is as intimidating as any the sport has ever seen. Overeem builds upon that psychological advantage with a style that is noticeably more aggressive in the opening moments of the fight, and few of his opponents are able to weather the devastating combination of kicks, punches and knees.

Those who do last more than one round with Overeem expend a lot of energy getting out of harm's way; Fabricio Werdum, who survived three rounds with the champion, found himself too exhausted to mount any real counter-offense and essentially provided Overeem with three rounds of target practice.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Lesnar, while not considered a well-rounded mixed martial artist, is as pure a fighting athlete as anyone in the game. His simple style of

controlling the pace and nature of the fight is informed by his experience as a Division-1 NCAA champion wrestler; Brock uses outstanding wrestling instincts and superior strength and conditioning to physically overwhelm his opponents. Lesnar's game plan is simple: run people over, take them out of their comfort zones and into his world, and keep them there.

It's also worthy of note that Lesnar, a former professional wrestler who seems comfortable in the role of the heel, is a bully of a finisher who seems energized by momentum. If Lesnar takes Overeem down and is able to draw blood, the hammer fists will start raining down with conviction. As Frank Mir and Randy Couture both know, there's not much chance of escape once one enters Brock Lesnar's comfort zone.

Lesnar's killer instinct contrasts strongly with Overeem's most recent outing, a lackluster title defense which showed flashes of striking brilliance but left audiences bored with Overeem's inability or unwillingness to finish the seemingly outmatched Werdum.

After losing his title rather painfully to a game Cain Velasquez, Lesnar suffered a second bout with diverticulitis which required surgery. Though he appeared strong and healthy at yesterday's weigh-ins, Lesnar will need to overcome the ring rust which seems to hamper fighters who spend long periods away from competition.

One time heavyweight up-and-comers Todd Duffee and Brett Rogers can both testify that Alistair Overeem will likely not give Lesnar very long to decide whether or not he's ready for action.

Post-UFC 111 Reflections on Shane Carwin and Dan Hardy

UFC 111 was entertaining but first let me air a couple grievances:

• My predictions about Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera show how much little I know about Jones' game. That kid has killer instinct. He also has a violent streak that I find disturbing; he makes graphically violent use of his elbows in a way that I think will probably influence a change in MMA rules.
• I watched UFC 111 standing up at Buffalo Wild Wings. The place was packed, we ordered wings and ate them standing up like poor grad students with no furniture. The service was terrible, too. How hard is it to nuke some mini-corn dogs? What can you do. People have endured greater hardships. :)

UFC 111: Dan is Hardy

Dan Hardy was GAME. The kid is tough, and even with absolutely no wrestling skills he's a excellent matchup for GSP. He went five rounds with the champ and took little visible damage (connective tissue notwithstanding.) He successfully escaped from what looked like deep armbar and kimura attempts by St. Pierre and ended the fight with a smile on his face. While we didn't get to see him land any real significant shots, he looked light on his feet and quick enough to get inside and out, easily matching GSP's quickness. If he gets some functional wrestling skills into his repertoire I wouldn't not be the least bit surprised to see a rematch. The division and the sport need more tough, respectful fighters like this and the fans will always tune in to see the guy who wants to end fights.

UFC 111: Another Smothertastic GSP Title Defense

I love GSP, he's well-rounded, polite, respectful, and just great for the sport. But he's become a little boring to watch lately. Fortunately, St. Pierre seems to be painfully aware of his frustrating inability to finish his last few opponents. Is he playing it safe? Probably not; there's nowhere to hide at the top of the division. Is he being conservative on the feet? Definitely. He knows that when two guys stand in front of one another and just throw haymakers, the first one to connect wins. That's not fighting, that's foolhardy.

Still, he's garnered some criticism for his reliance on wrestling, and is clearly upset at the perception that his reliance on his dominant wrestling is the "easy way out." Someone somewhere pointed Anderson Silva's snoozer against Thales "Crabman" Leites, and how Forrest Griffin paid the price for the criticism that followed. While St. Pierre demonstrated unequivocal dominance over his challenger, he was extremely critical of his own inability to finish the underdog Hardy.

I think George's next opponent should probably stock up on Band-Aids and Ibuprofen.

UFC 111: Shane Carwin Changes Middle Name to "F*cking"

Holy crap, Shane. This is reality; have we met? Seriously, we all knew Carwin was undefeated, we all knew his wins have all been first-round KO's, but did anyone see expect to see such explosive finishing power from a guy that size? Plenty of fighters know how to tie opponents up and wear them down in a clinch to eke out that "W" but rarely do we ever get to see such a devastatingly effective application of dirty boxing. Carwin didn't win because he's bigger or stronger; he won the fight because he's talented as a fighter. That work he did against the cage, getting wrist control and then delivering the uppercuts...it just defies description. I'm hesitant to keep rambling on because if this fight was any indication, there's more where that came from and we may see it in July. If there's a heavyweight opponent tailor-made for Brock Lesnar, it's Shane F*cking Carwin.

UFC 111: Frank Mir - Oh, The Humanity

Watching an unconscious Frank Mir, face down on the canvas, get pummeled by Shane Carwin was a horrific experience. After his brutal defeat by Lesnar, it warmed my heart to see Frank bounce back against Cheik Kongo. It's clear to me after this fight, however, that Mir will have to employ a very different strategy in order to be competitive against this new crop of heavyweight fighters. He may never match their strength or quickness, nor their killer instinct. What Frank has that other heavyweights lack is a world-class submissions game, and I can see him having success in the division with a renewed focus on grappling. Of course, what do I know? I've never set foot in the cage. As an avid fan, I just like Frank, and I'd like to see him win again. I wanted to see him win Saturday, but my guess is he'll be the first to say the better man won. I hope he bounces back with a string of wins before he retires a legend, hopefully to the broadcasting booth.