UFC 130: Nelson vs. Mir Prediction

UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill is a tribute to Zuffa's talented marketing team, the result of clever last-minute matchmaking and some inspired promotion.

Earlier this year, a potentially intriguing match-up between former light-heavyweight champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and resurgent contender Thiago Silva was scrubbed. Silva, back in the title picture after posting an impressive and dominating victory over Brandon "The Truth" Vera, was yanked from the schedule after his UFC 125 pre-fight urinalysis tested positive for banned substances.

If the absence of Jackson vs. Silva slowed down the UFC 130 hype machine, losing the highly-anticipated main event, a rubber match between 155lb champion Frankie "The Answer" Edgar and #1 contender Gray "Bully" Maynard, threatened to bring it to a grinding halt. Edgar and Maynard, arguably the two most evenly-matched fighters in the division, were expected to give fans their money's worth after thrilling fans on New Year's Day in a five-round slobberknocker that ended in (what else) a majority draw.

Fortunately, the UFC's roster is deep enough to furnish Saturday night's main card with plenty of talented fighters. The match-up I find the most compelling is the heavyweight pairing of former champ Frank Mir vs. Roy "Big Country" Nelson.

What We Know

Originally known for his jiu-jitsu skills, Mir has made a name for himself in recent years as one of the UFC's more well-rounded big men. He showcased ever-improving stand-up skills against Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cheick Kongo, but brutal stoppage losses to Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin put his status as a bona fide contender in question.

Roy Nelson is in many ways the anti-Frank Mir; pudgy, irreverent and seemingly incapable of taking himself seriously. While Nelson drew criticism on TUF for coasting through preliminary bouts, his stunning knock-out of Brendan Schaub in the season finale showcased the former IFL champion's skill. Even as Nelson's egregious mullet and self-deprecating arena entrance (to the tune of Weird Al Yankovic's "Fat") provide comic relief, his stunning knock-outs of Schaub and Stefan Struve serve to remind fans and opponents that Nelson is an accomplished and dangerous veteran.

What Could Happen

There's little question Frank Mir enters this fight with an advantage in nearly every department - at least on paper. A cerebral, analytical fighter known for tailoring opponent-specific game plans, Mir expects to capitalize on both a discernible size advantage as well as what he believes is superior stand-up technique.

Where Nelson shines is in the intangibles department. Undersized at heavyweight and sporting a giant pot belly, Nelson uses graceful footwork, poise under pressure and deceptive athleticism to turn the tables on opponents, a quality not unlike Fedor Emelianenko. Nelson's most recent fight, a decisive loss to #1 contender Junior Dos Santos, was nonetheless a competitive brawl that not only showed Nelson's skill but also his toughness.

Mir may be bigger and in better shape, and he may even have a sound game plan for Nelson, but unfortunately the element of surprise always seems to favor Mir's opponents. That trend doesn't bode well against an opponent like Nelson, who since entering the UFC has only exceeded expectations.

If recent history is any indication, we shouldn't be shocked to see Roy Nelson walk away with a "Knockout of the Night" bonus.

What I Learned from "The Ultimate Fighter: Season 10"

Disclaimer: it's a "reality" show. What we're being shown is probably to a large degree scripted, set up or otherwise edited into the story we finally see each episode. Chances are, there is a lot more than meets the eye. Producers make a show that needs to get ratings in order to sell advertising, period.

Clever editing from a talented production team notwithstanding, I learned the following from this season of "The Ultimate Fighter", featuring 16 competing heavyweights:

The Good

• Rashad Evans is a natural-born teacher. As talented as he is as one of the world's top light-heavies, his maturity and his ability to articulate himself make him perhaps even more well-suited to train other fighters. The proof is in the pudding; Team Evans went 7-1 in the preliminary fights and Evans' pick, Brendan Schaub, scored the upset of the year when he took out Coach Rampage's meal ticket, behemoth Marcus Jones. Very impressive work, Coach Rashad. The only time viewers saw Rashad come close to losing his cool was on the half-dozen or so occasions he and Rampage crossed paths to engage in smack-talk.
• Kimbo Slice is an earnest, humble and even charming guy trying to make a living as a fighter. He's come a long way since his days at Elite XC working as an entertainer rather than a mixed martial artist. Kimbo has come a long way emotionally, and openly acknowledges his weaknesses as readily as his strengths. As long as he continues to strengthen mentally, his lack of well-roundedness will not hold him back because (A.) the guy has killer instinct, and (B.) he has a lot of experience damaging people with his fists.
• Wes Sims was born for reality TV. It was really difficult to be bored when this guy was on screen. What kind of a person dons a Ninja costume and patiently stalks someone shooting baskets at night, just to entertain themselves? You couldn't script this kind of stuff if you wanted to.

The Bad

• Roy "Big Country" Nelson is obviously a talented fighter, coasting to the semi-final bracket with no more than the bare minimum effort necessary to secure the "W," a style which did not ingratiate him with UFC head Dana White. Roy's skillful clinic against a cocky James McSweeney finally showed us what he's capable of when forced to perform, but that may be only good enough for "The Ultimate Fighter" because in a stacked UFC heavyweight division, Nelson won't be given the chance to coast.
• Rampage Jackson, as a coach, doesn't pretend to even want to inspire the cooperation of his fighters. He wants them to win, period. When his fighters don't win - which was often - he takes his ball and goes home.
• Ostensibly a gentle giant, Marcus "The Darkness" Jones demonstrated some questionable judgement by getting in the face of Matt Mitrione over an accidental eye-poke Matt threw against teammate Scott Junk. Junk's doctor told him his fighting career was in jeopardy, which however unfortunate has nothing to do with Mitrione. Jones somehow missed the "unintentional" part of the whole eye-poke incident, which in all honesty occurred during a fight Mitrione was dominating. Note to Jones: when you're huge and dangerous, it isn't your prerogative to get angry to the point of being physical over absolutely nothing. There are places for people who behave like that, places where you get to work out a lot, wear a special outfit and have your own little room with lots of time to yourself.

The Ugly

• English kickboxer James McSweeney grew more cocky with each win, even to the point of mercilessly antagonizing troubled outsider Zak Jensen. A social misfit amongst this season's lot, the quiet and self-conscious Jensen was the target of a series of pranks by his house mates from day one. Episode 11 saw McSweeney lock the apparently claustrophobic Jensen in his own bathroom, a prank Jensen responded to by physically attacking McSweeney (albeit fruitlessly). McSweeney's bullying, rather than being entertaining, spoke volumes about his lack of maturity and it was no surprise to see him lose his next fight decisively to veteran Roy Nelson.
• Let's be honest: this season kind of sucked. Each episode's teaser followed the same pathetic "Will Kimbo fight again?" theme to build anticipation and elicit viewers, and each episode again dismissed that far-fetched notion while hastily introducing some ancillary manufactured drama, like Matt Mitrione.
• Mitrione drew criticism for his bizarre antics, which included exaggerated head injury symptoms, team subterfuge, and drinking other people's orange juice. In hindsight, most his antagonistic behaviors were probably the work of a very skilled mind-game practitioner (Mitrione was a pro defensive tackle). That aside, Mitrione is in the right place; to quote Dana White: "The kid can PUNCH!" He's one of the more naturally athletic fighters from season 10, and throws hurtin' bombs from a long reach. His disappointing quarter-final loss to James McSweeney was probably due to a combination of inexperience and panic. As Rashad Evans pointed out, Mitrione hit the mat with his hand ready to tap, before McSweeney even had the choke properly secured. There are a lot of fighters Mitrione could beat, but he has to stop beating himself first.