Awesome Fights This Weekend on UFC on FOX 3

I wasn't expecting much from UFC on FOX 3 until I actually looked at the main card. There are some badass fights this weekend. (Commercials do suck, but at least they're produced better than the hour's worth of house ad filler we are forced to sit through during a typical $60 pay-per-view broadcast.) Here are the three fights I'm most enthused about:


(Note: though I fail to mention Pat Barry here, it's no disrespect and quite the opposite in fact...the guy brings it every fight, win, lose or double-KO. If Barry's on the card, entertainment is a foregone conclusion.)

1. Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz
Until he ran into the neutralizing energy vortex that is Benson Henderson, Jim Miller was on the fast track to a title shot. Miller is a stud at lightweight; he seems stronger than average in the class, has a solid foundation in wrestling, throws bombs, and most importantly fights a smart game. Like most victims of natural disasters, he simply had no way of preparing for Benson Henderson until it was too late. 

Nate Diaz is the perfect test to see if Miller is still a champion simply waiting to happen. Diaz is experienced, fearless, creative and simply does not fatigue. He also sports a big reach advantage over Miller which, like his older brother Nick, he can put to great use landing accurate shots in volume. If Jim Miller's going to survive Diaz' "rock-em-sock-em-robot" routine he'll have to start fast and put him away early (or otherwise suplex him for three rounds, a la Rory McDonald.)

2. Josh Koscheck vs. Johnny Hendricks

Koscheck and Hendricks have something in common: neither have any interest in wrestling Jon Fitch for three rounds inside the Octagon. Hendricks took the fight anyway, though, which became an instant classic when Hendricks one-punch KO'd the notoriously durable Fitch in just under 12 seconds. Though Hendricks' historic win brought him many new fans overnight, his MMA career is still young and there's no question he still feels he has a lot to prove.

Meanwhile, Fitch's close friend and former training partner Koscheck has proven nearly unbeatable, acting almost as a proverbial filter between the UFC's potential and bonafide welterweight contenders. Outside of current champ George St. Pierre, no fighter seems able to match Koscheck's wrestling ability, a fact which seems to have given him the confidence to assume his role of the UFC's token headhunter. While the resilient Mike Pierce gave him fits in their split decision slugfest back in February, Koscheck's veteran composure and superior wrestling secured him the victory. For Johnny Hendricks to get the upset victory, he'll have overcome a considerable experience gap while also contending with (arguably) the most aggressive striker he has faced to date in Josh Koscheck

3. Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares

Of the possible guest stars currently being considered for future episodes of "The Anderson Silva Show," Alan Belcher is probably the most intriguing. A promising middleweight whose career was nearly ended by eye surgery, Belcher is an exciting, dynamic and incredibly well-rounded whose UFC highlight reel includes dumping Patrick Cote upside his head in a picture-perfect pile driver. 

If Belcher normally throws a lot of leg kicks, we shouldn't be surprised if he alters his game plan on Saturday night when he faces the infamous leg-mangler known as Rousimar Palhares. Short, stock and powerful, Rousimar has become known for his unique mastery of offensive Brazilian jiu-jitsu, having won 4 of his last 5 victories by way of leg lock. So effective are Palhares' submissions that Belcher will undoubtedly have to account for it or risk being ensnared in the Brazilian's iron grip.

Historically, I've often found that cards and match-ups which look only mildly entertaining on paper usually play out that way. Conversely, cards which look like they'll be exciting nearly always deliver. I don't know why that is, or what it means. Maybe the UFC matchmakers just know what they're doing. 

Anyway, be sure tune in Saturday night. These look like good fights, and I'll be surprised if I'm wrong.

Five Reasons Dos Santos vs. Fedor Makes Sense

The future looks grim for UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Overeem. Though Alistair Overeem's failed drug test comes as no surprise to those who have followed him since his lanky K-1 days, the timing couldn't be much worse. Desperate fans have taken to lobbying via Twitter for journeyman Mark Hunt as a potential replacement to face Junior Dos Santos (a rumor summarily quashed by UFC President Dana White.)

With the short list of suitable replacements looking very short indeed, a novel idea would be for White to sign Russian legend Fedor Emelianenko to challenge Dos Santos for the UFC heavyweight title.

Given White's acrimonious history with Fedor's management, the possibility seems as unlikely to ever become a reality as it is intriguing, but there is real logic behind it. Considering White's promotional savvy and history of confounding expectations, one should never say never.

Here are five reasons why Dos Santos vs. Fedor actually makes a lot of sense.

#1: Contention Doesn't Matter, It's a Business

Although Fedor's recent record may not seem to warrant an immediate UFC title shot, the determination of UFC contenders historically seems more academic than quantitative. From Forest Griffin and Brock Lesnar to Dan Hardy and more, many fan favorites have been given a fast track to the title shot as matchmakers strategically select the most marketable and stylistically interesting fighters from their pool of candidates.

While the UFC's "black box" title contention algorithm may not satisfy purists or statisticians, their fan-driven approach to matchmaking has paid off with record pay-per-view sales, and there's no question Dana White has done a great job selling fans the fights they want to see.

#2: Marketability

Whether you consider him the world's greatest or completely overrated, Fedor Emelianenko is without question responsible for some of the most exciting moments in mixed martial arts history. With a fearless style that keeps fans around the world on the edges of their seats, Fedor's star power gives him the unique leverage to repeatedly pass on a UFC contract and yet still maintain a lucrative fighting career.

Junior Dos Santos has more in common with Fedor than perhaps any other professional fighter. The Brazilian's jovial, everyman personality and sense of humility stands in ironic contrast to the reputation he has earned as the world's most feared heavyweight striker.

For a young sport still struggling with an image problem, a main event pairing two world-class fighters and exemplary sportsmen gives the UFC an opportunity to make inroads into markets their current brand cannot reach.

#3: Personnel Shortages

The recent departure of pay-per-view goliath Brock Lesnar leaves a gaping hole in the UFC's heavyweight division. With main event regulars Shane Carwin and "Minotauro" Noguiera out due to injury and younger prospects Brendan Schaub and Matt Mitrione ostensibly out of contention due to recent losses, the UFC is short on any obvious choices for a replacement for Overeem.

The addition of Fedor Emelianenko to the UFC's heavyweight division not only gives Zuffa an instant replacement for Overeem but a monopoly on MMA's heavyweight superstars. Although Fedor is undersized compared to the UFC's heavyweights, he has made a career of fighting and beating bigger, stronger opponents (including two former UFC heavyweight champions, Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski.)

#4: The Timing is Perfect

This spring's run of twelve consecutive weeks without a pay-per-view event represents the longest UFC pay-per-view drought in recent history. With The Ultimate Fighter TV ratings on a steady decline, the undoing of Dos Santos vs. Overeem threatens to slam the brakes on the UFC's summer momentum.

Meanwhile, Fedor Emelianenko has been training all spring, ostensibly in preparation for a tentative early summer match up with a yet-unnamed opponent from a short list of mid-tier fighters. After three consecutive losses in Strikeforce - the first of his career - Fedor's two most recent victories show improvement upon his exciting but arguably reckless style.

At a time when MMA is getting most of its publicity for the wrong reasons (see: TRT, pro wrestling,) the addition of Fedor to UFC 146 would bring much-needed appeal and instant legitimacy to the event.

#5: It's a Win-Win Situation for Dana White

Since walking away from tedious and protracted negotiations with Fedor's management two years ago, White has gone on the record to remind the world just how "overrated" he believed the Russian fighter always was. In considering Emelianenko as a last-minute replacement for Overeem, therefore, White may seem to be faced with a dilemma and risk looking like a hypocrite.

As a savvy business promoter, however, White probably knows he can't lose. If Dos Santos wins, White was right about Fedor all along, but conversely if Fedor manages to upset Dos Santos, the world's greatest is now the exclusive property of Zuffa, LLC. Either way, there's no risk here for Zuffa. Everyone wins.

UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem Preview

UFC 141 is upon us, and up for grabs tonight is the #1 heavyweight contender spot when former heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar faces behemoth Dutch kickboxer and current Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem.

What We Know

Although tonight's main event is ostensibly intended to produce a challenger for current champ Junior Dos Santos, it has largely been marketed on the "freak show" angle with far more attention being given to the size of the two fighters than their respective fighting styles.

Alistair Overeem matches Lesnar's size and strength, and as the world's top heavyweight kickboxer seems to have an immense advantage against as tentative striker as Lesnar. Overeem showcased his athleticism and powerful sprawl against Fabricio Werdum, easily shrugging off all takedown attempts from the Brazilian.

Critics of Overeem, however, are quick to point out the distinction between grappling takedowns, which more akin to dragging opponents to the ground - and more explosive folkstyle wrestling takedowns, which rely on driving through takedowns to control the opponent's center of gravity.

At six-foot-five and a lean 260 pounds, Overeem's He-Man action figure physique is as intimidating as any the sport has ever seen. Overeem builds upon that psychological advantage with a style that is noticeably more aggressive in the opening moments of the fight, and few of his opponents are able to weather the devastating combination of kicks, punches and knees.

Those who do last more than one round with Overeem expend a lot of energy getting out of harm's way; Fabricio Werdum, who survived three rounds with the champion, found himself too exhausted to mount any real counter-offense and essentially provided Overeem with three rounds of target practice.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Lesnar, while not considered a well-rounded mixed martial artist, is as pure a fighting athlete as anyone in the game. His simple style of

controlling the pace and nature of the fight is informed by his experience as a Division-1 NCAA champion wrestler; Brock uses outstanding wrestling instincts and superior strength and conditioning to physically overwhelm his opponents. Lesnar's game plan is simple: run people over, take them out of their comfort zones and into his world, and keep them there.

It's also worthy of note that Lesnar, a former professional wrestler who seems comfortable in the role of the heel, is a bully of a finisher who seems energized by momentum. If Lesnar takes Overeem down and is able to draw blood, the hammer fists will start raining down with conviction. As Frank Mir and Randy Couture both know, there's not much chance of escape once one enters Brock Lesnar's comfort zone.

Lesnar's killer instinct contrasts strongly with Overeem's most recent outing, a lackluster title defense which showed flashes of striking brilliance but left audiences bored with Overeem's inability or unwillingness to finish the seemingly outmatched Werdum.

After losing his title rather painfully to a game Cain Velasquez, Lesnar suffered a second bout with diverticulitis which required surgery. Though he appeared strong and healthy at yesterday's weigh-ins, Lesnar will need to overcome the ring rust which seems to hamper fighters who spend long periods away from competition.

One time heavyweight up-and-comers Todd Duffee and Brett Rogers can both testify that Alistair Overeem will likely not give Lesnar very long to decide whether or not he's ready for action.

UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson - Something to Prove vs. Nothing to Lose

With the UFC's experimental FOX television debut safely behind us, commercial-free MMA action returns tonight headlined by one of the most anticipated main events of the year. Former UFC light heavyweight champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua faces off with Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Dan Henderson in a long-awaited meeting of the former PRIDE rivals.

What We Know

Mauricio Rua entered the UFC to high hopes, but his Octagon career has been an emotional roller coaster for fans. After dropping a closely contested title decision to former champion Lyoto Machida, Rua bounced back and won the belt in a rematch, only to be immediately sidelined with knee surgery.

Following a long recovery, Rua returned to defend his title only to have it summarily stripped away by Jon "Bones" Jones in a one-sided TKO loss which was not particularly competitive.

Rua's most recent outing, a brilliant first-round knockout of Griffin which avenged that inauspicious UFC debut, showed a return to form the Brazilian must maintain to get back into contention. A dominant victory over Dan Henderson might fast-track Shogun to another title shot.

At 41 years of age Henderson may not have time on his side, but his dramatic victory over the legendary Fedor Emelianenko proved he can still get the job done against younger and more aggressive opponents.

Stung early and knocked down early by Fedor's frenetic striking attack, the cagey veteran was able to reverse positions and deliver a blind-side uppercut that dropped Fedor and led to a first-round TKO.

Both Rua and Henderson have made names for themselves as strikers, though with markedly different styles. Rua uses speed, great boxing and devastating leg and body kicks to keep opponents on the defensive, while Henderson relies more on timing and power to land the big overhand right which has become his signature.

While Henderson's superb ability to close the distance and connect will likely factor into Rua's strategy entering this fight, he will probably be more focused on nullifying Henderson's distinct advantage as a wrestler. By using superior quickness and landing the same vicious leg kicks he used to dismantle Lyoto Machida, Rua may be able to wear down the veteran wrestler and chip away at his ability to shoot.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Superstitious fans will appreciate the fact that Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski, Brett Rogers, Fabricio Werdum, and Antonio Silva each fought Fedor Emelianenko and then immediately turned in dismal follow-up performances. Though it's improbably Henderson will fall completely flat in his return to the Octagon, turning in a strong performance against Rua will mean breaking the "Fedor Curse."

Had he decided to retire, Henderson's win over Emelianenko would have provided a definitive conclusion to a long and illustrious MMA career.

Rua, on the other hand, is just one fight removed from a lopsided beat-down at the hands of Jon Jones, and at 29 years old is only reaching the prime of his fighting career.

Like most fights, this one may be about unfinished business. All things being equal (or a wash, anyway,) the odds usually favor the fighter who has something left to prove.

Off-Topic: The Opposite of Good is Not Evil; it's Apathy

Last month, Mediacom reached an important milestone by adding a slew of HD channels including the high-definition feed of InDemand, the carrier for UFC pay-per-view events. It only took two years of desperate phone calls and email groveling to Mediacom, InDemand and even Zuffa for me to pull this off (yes, me...I alone am responsible.)

Mediacom sales reps and their loved ones can rest easy now that UFC in HD - something they promised me when upgrading my digital box two years ago - actually exists.

Sadly, a separate experience with Mediacom customer service recently showed me that while they're gradually (and grudgingly) making some investments in their hardware infrastructure, it's business as usual in the service department.

In my "spare time" I manage rental properties. While I cannot endorse rental property management as a hobby, pastime or livelihood, I will concede that you benefit immeasurably from the ass-kicking the Universe sees fit to give you. Any notions of easy money, passive income and the leisurely life of a land baron quickly evaporate while you struggle in 95-degree heat to remove a monolithic air conditioner from a college apartment window as the 20 year-old female tenants look on and offer kindly to help. "Nah, it's cool," you grunt, as your lumbar vertebra audibly adjust and pigeon droppings and condensation spill all over you.

Such experiences teach one humility.

That said, nothing prepared me for the unparalleled apathy I encountered when I phoned Mediacom to reconnect cables following a flat roof replacement.

For years, Mediacom's contract installers had had free reign on our roof and common building areas, routing cables as necessary without any thought to aesthetics, practicality or the integrity of the roof. All cables entered the roof crudely via holes bored with spade bits, slathered with silicone goo. The roof itself featured a breathtaking tangled web of coaxial cables. When our roofing company recently removed the old taking, they couldn't find any connectors to remove, and thus in the interest of time took the initiative to cut the cables altogether.

Fair enough. Roofers have enough variables to deal with. To their credit, they had the foresight to install a nice rugged PVC fitting to properly conduct such cables in the future.

Now that they're finished, I attempted to phone Mediacom in order to have a technician visit the site to restore service and reconnect cables while routing them properly.

I may just as well have asked them if I could have cable Internet delivered to a boat.

After wading through 5 minutes of muzak and IVR hurdles and being summarily transferred three times (repeating myself each time,) I found myself talking to speaking with a fantastically unimaginative and unmotivated customer service representative.

While this friendly CSR seemed to comprehend my issue well enough, the notion of a property manager calling on behalf of all the building's tenant subscribers just plain blew his mind. Rather than acknowledging the actual problem, he busied himself trying to classifying the issue. "Is this commercial or is it residential?" he asked, confounded by the lack of granular and extraneous details. "Is this for a business?" Unwilling to deviate from the standard CSR support call algorithm, he repeated himself.

Recognizing the dreaded infinite recursion loop, I cut my losses. I politely told him I would simply call the tenants individually and ask them to phone the cable company individually. (The technicians visiting the site would be forced to contact me to gain access to the roof.)

UFC 130: Nelson vs. Mir Prediction

UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill is a tribute to Zuffa's talented marketing team, the result of clever last-minute matchmaking and some inspired promotion.

Earlier this year, a potentially intriguing match-up between former light-heavyweight champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and resurgent contender Thiago Silva was scrubbed. Silva, back in the title picture after posting an impressive and dominating victory over Brandon "The Truth" Vera, was yanked from the schedule after his UFC 125 pre-fight urinalysis tested positive for banned substances.

If the absence of Jackson vs. Silva slowed down the UFC 130 hype machine, losing the highly-anticipated main event, a rubber match between 155lb champion Frankie "The Answer" Edgar and #1 contender Gray "Bully" Maynard, threatened to bring it to a grinding halt. Edgar and Maynard, arguably the two most evenly-matched fighters in the division, were expected to give fans their money's worth after thrilling fans on New Year's Day in a five-round slobberknocker that ended in (what else) a majority draw.

Fortunately, the UFC's roster is deep enough to furnish Saturday night's main card with plenty of talented fighters. The match-up I find the most compelling is the heavyweight pairing of former champ Frank Mir vs. Roy "Big Country" Nelson.

What We Know

Originally known for his jiu-jitsu skills, Mir has made a name for himself in recent years as one of the UFC's more well-rounded big men. He showcased ever-improving stand-up skills against Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cheick Kongo, but brutal stoppage losses to Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin put his status as a bona fide contender in question.

Roy Nelson is in many ways the anti-Frank Mir; pudgy, irreverent and seemingly incapable of taking himself seriously. While Nelson drew criticism on TUF for coasting through preliminary bouts, his stunning knock-out of Brendan Schaub in the season finale showcased the former IFL champion's skill. Even as Nelson's egregious mullet and self-deprecating arena entrance (to the tune of Weird Al Yankovic's "Fat") provide comic relief, his stunning knock-outs of Schaub and Stefan Struve serve to remind fans and opponents that Nelson is an accomplished and dangerous veteran.

What Could Happen

There's little question Frank Mir enters this fight with an advantage in nearly every department - at least on paper. A cerebral, analytical fighter known for tailoring opponent-specific game plans, Mir expects to capitalize on both a discernible size advantage as well as what he believes is superior stand-up technique.

Where Nelson shines is in the intangibles department. Undersized at heavyweight and sporting a giant pot belly, Nelson uses graceful footwork, poise under pressure and deceptive athleticism to turn the tables on opponents, a quality not unlike Fedor Emelianenko. Nelson's most recent fight, a decisive loss to #1 contender Junior Dos Santos, was nonetheless a competitive brawl that not only showed Nelson's skill but also his toughness.

Mir may be bigger and in better shape, and he may even have a sound game plan for Nelson, but unfortunately the element of surprise always seems to favor Mir's opponents. That trend doesn't bode well against an opponent like Nelson, who since entering the UFC has only exceeded expectations.

If recent history is any indication, we shouldn't be shocked to see Roy Nelson walk away with a "Knockout of the Night" bonus.

UFC 129: GSP vs. Shields Pre-Fight Analysis

Toronto hosts the UFC on April 30th in a first-ever stadium event which will be the largest (and loudest) North American event in MMA history. UFC 129's main event finds welterweight champion George St. Pierre facing top contender and former Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields. Shields, promised a title shot while in negotiations with Dana White, enters a UFC 170-lb division effectively cleaned out by the champion. While fans haven't exactly been clamoring to see two elite wrestlers face off in a five-round main event, in the current welterweight landscape this match up is the only that makes sense.

What We Know

Since reclaiming his belt in 2008 from Matt Serra, George St. Pierre has been a juggernaut at 170 pounds. Dominating victories over the world-class welterweights including Jon Fitch, Thiago Alves, BJ Penn and Josh Koscheck - have fueled reasonable speculation about a move to the UFC's middleweight division.

Making St. Pierre's record more impressive is the fact that in five title defenses, the champion hasn't lost a single round on the score cards. For all the bold predictions and best efforts of the UFC's welterweight contenders, not one has been able to find an answer for GSP's superior athleticism or his relentless and well-rounded attack.

Enter Jake Shields - a relative UFC newcomer and veteran problem-solver who has made a career out of exceeding expectations. With superior wrestling, conditioning and jiu-jitsu, the former collegiate wrestling national champion and top grappler has managed to out-work or otherwise submit many of the world's top fighters over the last six years; Shields' 15-fight win streak includes victories over Carlos Condit, Yushin Okami and most recently Dan Henderson.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Arguably the most athletic fighter in the division, St. Pierre wins - and makes it look pretty easy - by taking opponents out of their comfort zones and keeping them there. While he has been criticized recently as "boring" for not finishing more fights, the game plans he chooses to employ are varied and dynamic, and often involve attacking (and beating) opponents at their strengths. The champion's workhorse style doesn't have the instant replay appeal of fighters like Fedor Emelianenko or Anderson Silva, but to date St. Pierre's smothering offense has proven nearly impossible for any opponent to overcome.

Challenger Jake Shields brings a potentially problematic set of attributes to the table as St. Pierre's opponent. While the champion has handled kick boxers, muy thai fighters and wrestlers all with relative ease, he has yet to face anyone with Shields' combination of wrestling, submissions and most importantly - experience. As champion, Shields has had his chin, his conditioning and his skills tested and has always managed to emerge victorious. His proven ability to bounce back, turn the tables and find a way to win is what sets Jake Shields apart from all previous challengers.

Meanwhile, George St. Pierre hasn't lost a single round since regaining his belt. Members of Shields' camp have an explanation for St. Pierre's routine dominance over the division, pointing out that none his opponents have been able to test the champion. Shields' key to victory may be to take a page out of the champion's book and drag him out of his comfort zone into unknown territory.

How The Fight Could Go

Another key to solving St. Pierre may be understanding his philosophy, which treats MMA more like chess than brawling. One after another, St. Pierre's challengers swing for the fences, strike out and eventually crumble under his pressure. For all the explanations and analyses made, St. Pierre has not yet faced an opponent who can match his simple desire to win.

On Saturday night, however, that may change. Many believe Shields' submission skills are what make him such a dangerous contender, but the California native's cast-iron work ethic and "never-say-die" attitude that make him unique. With the heart of a champion and the experience to match, Jake Shields could be the first guy to take GSP into dark water.

Then again...he may not. George St. Pierre may simply be better than everyone else.

What to Expect from Rua vs. Jones

UFC 128 dodged a bullet. The addition of Jon Jones as a replacement opponent for 205-lb champ Mauricio Rua almost certainly saves the event from being relegated to ad-supported broadcast on Spike TV. Jones' star power lends interest to a main card decimated by fighter injuries, and perhaps makes Saturday night's headliner the year's most anticipated to date.

What We Know

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua entered the UFC over three years ago greeted with justifiably high expectations. The Brazilian phenom's record in PRIDE included wins over Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, Mark Coleman, Kevin Randleman, as well as a pair of wins over K-1 (and current Strikeforce) terror Alistair Overeem. Rua's introduction to UFC fans at UFC 76:Knockout failed to deliver as promised, as the former PRIDE Grand Prix winner quickly ran out of gas and eventually succumbed to a late choke applied by cardio nightmare Forrest "Lungs" Griffin.

Since his inauspicious American debut, Rua has undergone two knee surgeries to correct an injury which had apparently hindered his performance, and has steadily improved. A sloppy rematch victory over an aging Mark Coleman in 2009 was followed up with an emphatic KO of UFC hall of famer Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell, fast-tracking Rua to a title shot in Octob

er 2009 with elusive karate-man Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida. Despite battering Machida for five rounds and winning over fans, Rua somehow failed to win over the judges and dropped the split decision. Confident in his strategy against Machida and with a serious grudge, "Shogun" preempted the judges altogether the following May in the ensuing rematch, scoring an emphatic first-round KO to silence the critics and seize the UFC light heavyweight title.

Jon "Bones" Jones has been on a steady ascent since his UFC debut in the summer of 2008 against Andre Gusmao. Jones followed up that decision victory with another unanimous decision over veteran brawler Stephan Bonnar in a surprise crowd-pleaser. That match introduced fans to Jones' spectacular wrestling and striking skills, but also raised questions about his gas tank as he spent much of the third round backpedaling from Bonnar.

Those questions remain, though in fairness to Jones only because he has since managed to finish every fight in the first or second round. Jones' win streak in the UFC currently stands at six (not including a questionable DQ loss to Matt Hamill) and is capped off most recently by a dominating submission win over Ryan Bader. Jones surprised everyone by manhandling Bader, a powerful wrestler with deceptively good hands who was expected to give Jones his toughest match-up to date, and after controlling him from the opening moments of the fight finished Bader in Round 2 with a brutal modified guillotine.

What The Tapes Don't Show

Rua reacted to his bitter decision loss to Machida by resolving to make MMA's much-debated scoring system a non-issue. His subsequent first-round KO of Machida was as dramatic and resounding a victory as any title bout in recent memory, looking more like a sixth round than a do-over, but was the result of reflection and study. Wagering that Machida would be preoccupied with defending against his vicious leg and body kicks, Rua's camp spent more time working on his punches and studying Machida's counter-offensive habits in detail, and implemented their game plan with devastating success. Rua's skillful dismantling of the elusive and unorthodox Machida provided coaches and fighters with a clinic on strategy planning and execution.

Speaking of strategy planning and execution, the Greg Jackson-trained Jon Jones hails from arguably the most successful camp in the business. Despite his being the UFC hype machine's employee of the month, Jones is a well-rounded fighter with a much more patient and dynamic game than his highlight reel indicates. He possesses freakish reach, athleticism and exceptionally functional wrestling, but his most dangerous attributes may be his creative problem-solving ability and discipline. Jones seems to have that rare uncanny ability to identify and exploit weaknesses in real-time, a trait reminiscent of Fedor Emelianenko, and as such doesn't waste a lot of energy making mistakes for his opponents to capitalize on.

What Might Happen

Rua and Jones are both thinkers, and neither is likely to charge and brawl. Knowing how (A.) how patiently Rua approached the Machida fight and (B.) that Jones will be cornered by Greg Jackson, I expect this fight to be more of a chess match than a barn burner, and in a five-round fight that means cardio could become a factor. While Rua erased all questions about his conditioning during his five-round war against Machida, it remains to be seen if Jones has the gas tank to keep up, should this fight even make it to the championship rounds.

Styles make fights, and anticipating the outcome of this stylistic match-up is particularly problematic. I expect each fighter to push the action towards each other's weaknesses, but it's hard to say what those are. Clearly Jones' size and reach advantage should be a factor, and while Shogun isn't helpless on the ground I don't expect to see him out-wrestle a wrestler like Jones. On the other hand, Jones' thin lower legs won't be able withstand the savage muy thai leg kicks Rua favors; the "shin factor" may play heavily in the direction the fight takes, if it doesn't end the fight abruptly in gruesome fashion (ala Corey Hill).

For all the problems the UFC encountered solidifying a main card, the Rua vs. Jones title bout makes this event worth tuning in.

And even if the main event doesn't deliver, perhaps Dana White will enter the Octagon and explain to Joe Rogan how Zuffa's recent acquisition of the fans' and fighters' only alternative to the UFC will actually benefit the fans and fighters.

Fedor Returns to Cure MMA Boredom Epidemic

The world of mixed martial arts finally has something to look forward to. On February 12th, Russian legend Fedor Emelianenko returns to face Brazilian contender Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva in the quarterfinals of Strikeforce's heavyweight Grand Prix.

Who knows why it took so long seal the deal; maybe Fedor's manager Vadim Finkelstein wouldn't budge on that rumored private-label amusement park provision. Who knows and who cares, the ends justify the means for Fedor's fans.

In any case this matchup is a good one. Silva poses as great a threat as Fedor has yet faced for a few reasons:

• He's bigger. Force is equal to mass multiplied by acceleration, folks. Silva is an athletic 260lbs, and at 6'4" he sports a significant reach advantage and will probably look very comfortable on his feet (his ever-improving stand-up game gave Freddie Roach-trained Andrei Arlovski fits last year.) Rogers showed us all how a bigger man could use the cage to keep Fedor from making mischief. I expect Silva to be one of the first of Fedor's opponents to purposefully exploit the size advantage.
• He's dynamic. I first saw Silva in action in a sloppy brawl against Ricco Rodriguez. Both men looked out of practice and slightly out of shape, with Silva getting the split decision victory. Since then, "Bigfoot" shown both improved skill and improved conditioning, and enters this fight at no real disadvantage, on the ground or standing.
• He's patient. Certainly the "Fedor jitters" played a part in the Russian's many shocking wins over larger, faster and stronger opponents. Both Tim Sylvia and Brett Rogers hesitated before the stalking Russian, only to find themselves looking up at the ref and wondering what happened. Antonio Silva came back against Mike Kyle after getting knocked on his ass in the opening moments of the fight; with that lesson in humility behind him it's highly unlikely that Fedor will catch him napping.
• He (now) knows Fedor can be beaten. All Silva needs to know is that what one man can do, another can do. Like the rest of us I'm sure Silva crapped his pants when Fedor tapped. It also probably didn't escape his attention that Fedor, to be blunt, gave up that submission quite carelessly. Fedor's "ad hoc" fighting style doesn't rely as much on opponent-specific strategy so much as real-time analysis and reaction. There's no question that Fedor is willing to take a lick or two while he feels his opponent out for weaknesses; if Silva's smart, he'll be ready to exploit Fedor's inhuman lack of fear the way Fabricio Werdum did.

On the other hand..this is of course Fedor. Though it doesn't need to be said, I'll say it anyway:

• He can do it all. Fedor is as well-rounded as anyone who has ever fought. He isn't big, but he has The Big Punch. He's probably not the fastest athlete fighting today, but his uncanny timing and balance give him the jump on nearly everyone he's fought. He may not be a world-champion competitive Abu Dhabi grappler, but he applies submissions like his life depends on it. He really doesn't neglect any one facet of the game.
• He has experience. Fedor has 32+ professional wins at heavyweight. He's fought strikers, grapplers, pure wrestlers, kickboxers and everything in between. That record really is compounded by the fact that, since he doesn't believe in cutting weight, he for all practical purposes is fighting guys from a higher weight class. Picture Frankie Edgar fighting at middleweight to appreciate the significance of this.
• He's committed to ending the fight. Fedor isn't fighting for points. He treats fighting as problem-solving and his opponents like strategy puzzles; give him a few minutes, and he'll solve the problem. He's ended fights by every means imaginable, from arm-bar to kimura to short-choke to TKO, to one-punch knockout and majority decision. The unified rules of MMA make it technically possible and even advantageous for fighters to secure victory by winning over the judges, Fedor doesn't seem to care about winning the round.
• He's fearless. It has been said of Fedor that he "cuts easy," but that's just statistics out of context. The practical reality is that Fedor presses the action in nearly every fight without any real fear of getting hit. Perhaps he's willing to get tagged once or twice simply as a means to determining the extent of someone's range. The much-larger Brett Rogers, knocked out by Fedor after briefly appearing to have the advantage in their fight, said later that he was thrown off by how "loose" Fedor seemed. Indeed, Fedor's willingness to wade into harm's way against larger opponents is unsettling to behold, and probably even more so from inside the cage.

Fedor vs. Silva can go either way, it really can. Size considerations notwithstanding, both fighters are skilled, tough and smart, so I won't predict a winner. I hope only for a good fight, and knowing what I know about these two fighters I don't expect anything less.

The Most Ironic Man on the Planet

Legendary Russian mixed martial artist Fedor Emelianenko, dubbed "The Baddest Man on the Planet" by Western media, frankly isn't a good fit for the UFC. For all the growth in the MMA audience for which Dana White and Zuffa is responsible, the hyper-macho blood thirst cultivated by their marketing partners does as much to prevent its mainstream acceptance.

Fedor has little use for this characterization of what he thinks of ultimately as a sport and nothing more:

Aggression is not something generated by this or that sport; it's personalities that are aggressive. And it's a general rule everywhere, not only in sports, but in everyday life too. If people are used to being rude to each other, being hostile, they will be the same in their everyday life. This is why, of course, things do happen. Fighters often tend to forget they are primarily human beings. They're so carried away with the show, that they become engulfed by this inexplicable aggression, or a show of aggression which is meant to attract attention. I'm not a supporter of such things.

(link to interview)

Unburdened by delusions of omnipotence, Fedor quite naturally has lost very few fights. Still, it strikes me as ironic that the fighter most likely to win any given fight is the one who seems to place the least existential value on the fight's outcome.

UFC 123 Wrap-Up

After an extended dry spell, UFC 123 has compelled me to weigh in on some of the organization's top fighters and the state of MMA in general.

What Happened

The co-main event, Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida vs. Quentin "Rampage" Jackson, predictably went the distance in a competitive if cautious fight featuring two former champions looking to rebound. Machida, an elusive and defensive fighter well-known for his confounding combination of sumo and karate, employed a more conservative strategy than usual against a fighter whom, in all fairness, he may not match up very well against. Machida's abrupt countering style - charging in head first - got him in big trouble in May when Brazilian chute box veteran Mauricio "Shogun" Rua saw it coming and timed a big overhand to knock out The Dragon in his first title defense. Jackson, arguably the division's stand-up fighter, had little trouble finding his range but played a smart fight and took the proper angles to land the occasional shot and keep Machida back-pedaling. Machida, meanwhile, showed flashes of brilliance with a 3rd-round flurry and big take-down, but it was too little, too late in the eyes of the judges, who awarded a split-decision victory to the more aggressive Jackson.

What I Think It Means

The fight game continues to evolve. Machida's defensive, unorthodox style confused enough fighters for enough fights to become the champion, but nonetheless proved too static to weather a single title defense against a fighter with a more dynamic approach to fighting. People have solved Machida's strategy; Shogun exposed his greatest weaknesses and exploited them - not once, but twice. Rampage Jackson, employing both patience and an advantage in the striking game, demonstrated once more that "fighting to win" trumps "fighting not to lose" every time. As dominant as George St. Pierre is at welterweight, the sport will inevitably evolve beyond his increasingly conservative, wrestling-oriented style of fighting.

What Else Happened

BJ Penn, whom Freddie Roach called the best boxer in MMA, finally did something with those dangerous hands of his and knocked out Matt Hughes at welterweight. What I assumed was a nostalgic retirement-party rubber match for the two former champions turned out instead to be a rebirth of "The Prodigy" Penn at 170lbs after being driven from the UFC's lightweight division by Frankie Edgar.

George "Who?" Sotiropoulos, a Greek Australian TUF alumnus, continues to make his case to the UFC's apparently deaf ears for a spot in 155-pound title contention. After a disappointing fluke knockout against the show's eventual runner-up, Sotiropoulos has been born again hard. Since TUF, Sotiropoulos has torn through the division like wet toilet paper, destroying Roman Mitichyan, George Roop, the hard-punching Jason Dent, Joe Stevenson, and Kurt Pellegrino to amass a 5-0 record entering Saturday's fight against the prodigious young Joe Lauzon. Lauzon, who criticized Sotiropoulos' style as "safe," opened the first round aggressively with some success landing shots before being controlled against the cage by Sotiropoulos. The second round really showed marked contrast in the two fighters' level of preparation, as Lauzon sucked wind while Sotiropoulos picked up speed and changed levels. Once the fight went to the ground, it was only a matter of time and the dangerous Sotiropoulos outworked Lauzon to secure a kimura arm lock and tap in round two.

What I Think It Means

Regarding Penn - who knows. BJ Penn is an odd cat, an eccentric guy. When his head is in it, he's arguably the most well-rounded fighter and skilled fighter on the planet. He entered the arena mumbling to himself and abruptly tried to flee the cage after knocking out Matt Hughes in 21 seconds. Penn is an enigma and will likely stay that way. Dana White has announced Penn will next face Jon Fitch at welterweight. Fitch, a taller 170-pounder, provides possibly the best example of what some fans call "lay-and-pray," a one-dimensional fighting style which relies on success take downs to secure the decision victory. White's decision could be viewed as retaliatory or punitive, as Fitch has repeatedly demanded a shot at the title while simultaneously refusing to face his training partner and fellow contender Josh Koscheck. Whatever his reasoning, if nothing else the stylistic match-up is an exciting one, as Penn's diverse and skilled game have proven to be an advantage against nearly all fighters. This is the fight the fans want to see; the division's most boring fighter vs. the division's most enigmatic, talented and arguably dangerous fighter.

Regarding Sotiropoulos - I don't even know where to start. This guy is just great...his pre- and post-fight interviews demonstrate maturity, respect for his opponents and his employer, and in general just a pretty balanced outlook on life in general. With his lanky old-man physique and knee braces, he's not much to look at, but it stands in perfect contrast to a fighting style defined by superior conditioning, diligent training and cast-iron determination. George Sotiropoulos does not have Frankie Edgar's speed or Gray Maynard's strength or Nate Diaz' confidence, but he apparently he doesn't need them. He wins by working harder AND smarter. Why the UFC has rewarded his efforts by matching him laterally against Dennis Siver, cut from the UFC in 2008 only to be re-signed last year - is a mystery. I don't think anyone, after watching Sotiropoulos submit Joe Lauzon, would have visualized Siver standing between Sotiropoulos and the lightweight title shot, but it's a moot point. It doesn't matter what I think, it matters what the UFC brass thinks, and the last person in the world who is going to complain about it is George Sotiropoulos. Look for big things from George in 2011.

Machida Calls For Do-Over Via Rashad Evans Rematch

The championship belt many thought karate revivalist Lyoto Machida would hang onto for a while is now the property of Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, who looks to sit on it for a while as he undergoes another knee surgery.

Shogun's decisive victory over Machida laid to rest any questions about the former PRIDE legend's potential. Shogun shocked the world last year, literally kicking away Machida's former aura of invincibility. Robbed of the victory many felt he earned the first time, Rua walked into the Octagon this May resolved to

The unfortunate effect of Machida's devastating knockout loss is that the concussion seems to have either erased his memory or altered his judgement. Machida's management is apparently now interested in an "interim" title fight with Rashad Evans, the same fighter Machida knocked out to win the title originally. Evans, a solid contender and technically the first in line for a title shot at Shogun, has nonetheless turned in lackluster lay-and-pray wins in his last two outings against Thiago Silva and Rampage Evans.

The first problem with a Machida-Evans rematch is the notion that a newly-dethroned champion in any division can simply demand an instant shot at the title. Even George St. Pierre, whom most agree simply didn't show up to fight a disrespected Matt Serra, had to earn his dinner by manhandling Josh Koscheck and then destroying Matt Hughes before he earned a rematch with Serra. In fairness to a very competitive 205lb division, Machida needs to get in line and prove he can still swim in the deep end before he gets a shot at redemption.

The second problem with this rematch is that it denies Evans the fruit of his lay-and-pray efforts: a fight with Mauricio Rua. Rules are rules, and there's no rule that says a fighter can't rely heavily on wrestling ability to win fights. Evans, while not an exciting fighter lately, has earned his shot at Shogun's belt, and - Machida - the guy Shogun annihilated to become champion - is in no position to make this demand of Evans and the UFC's matchmakers.

The third problem is more subjective. Machida, in their first outing, matched very well against a tentative and jittery Evans, who got away from his bread-and-butter wrestling ability and tried to trade strikes with an accomplished competitive karate-man. Machida's camp probably like their chances against Evans, and see a rematch with him as an easy way to leap-frog over the rest of the division's contenders back to a title shot with Shogun.

In lobbying for a Shogun rubber match by way of Rashad Evans, Machida's camp is exercising the "Do over!" impulse some fighters demonstrate immediately after a devastating loss, eager to erase the moment from our collective consciousness with a spectacular Mulligan rematch. I haven't ever seen good things ever come of this phenomenon, as it demonstrates emotional binding or attachment. Fighters who tether themselves to an ideal - whether that is a stubborn and inflexible game plan, a refusal to retire, or a personal need to be described by others as the world's greatest - are attempting to secure outcomes of events beyond their control. That's reality.

I would personally like to see Machida rematch Thiago Silva, who has certainly earned his own shot at redemption, or perhaps a tune-up fight against Rampage Jackson. By having to earn his shot the old-fashioned way, like everyone else, Machida will demonstrate the character of a champion by acknowledging his fall and then quietly picking himself up again. I look forward to seeing that happen.

UFC 1 Lowlights and Highlights

I just watched YouTube footage of UFC 1, with former PKA champion kick boxer and movie star Bill "Superfoot" Wallace in the broadcast booth. Royce Gracie tapped out pro boxer Art Jimmerson, who looked a little out of his element being smothered by a Brazilian in a gi.

Wallace's botched introduction more than made up for it. Watch and enjoy as dinner makes a break for it at the 13-second mark:

UFC 113: Rua's Rock Beats Machida's Scissors

Former PRIDE legend Mauricio "Shogun" Rua seized the UFC light heavyweight title in stunning fashion Saturday night, bringing dramatic closure to months of debate and speculation.

Rua's title challenge last October gave the heretofore unbeaten Lyoto Machida his most competitive fight to date in the Octagon, a five-round war that left "The Dragon" battered and exhausted. With an unscathed Rua smiling in anticipation of having his hand raised in victory, Bruce Buffer instead announced Machida as the winner by unanimous decision to a chorus of boos.

Many fans, analysts, and fighters felt Rua's relentless pace, physical conditioning and barrage of devastating kicks did more to score him points, an opinion shared even by outspoken UFC head Dana White. White immediately called for a rematch, while Rua returned home, unscathed, to quietly formulate a plan to improve upon apparent perfection.

Rua returned to face Machida for the second time this past weekend, and brought with him an unwavering determination to decide the outcome of the fight without involving the judges. Both fighters clearly did their homework; Machida began timing Rua's leg kicks to set up a counter immediately and also took Rua down early in the fight, while Rua showed excellent scrambling in anticipation of a ground fight. The fight looked to be every bit as active and competitive as their first.

It was Rua, however, who won the high-stakes strategic gamble that has been described by MMA writer Darren Wong as "rock, paper and scissors." Machida, who after October's title defense was left with broken ribs, welts and deep bruising, wagered that Rua would again rely on the kicks he had so much success with in their first fight. It seems that Rua, on the other hand, anticipated this adjustment on the part of the Machida camp and instead used those expectations to set up his boxing. Rua gambled that Machida would be so focused on timing and countering his kicks that he'd leave himself vulnerable, and that is precisely what happened.

As Machida delivered his trademark straight left, Rua slipped the punch and came over the top with a hard overhand right on the side of Machida's head that buckled the champ's knees. Rua wasted no time and pounced, finishing the champ with four or five clean strikes from the full mount position before Yves Lavigne could step in to yank him off his motionless opponent.

After a slow start which included lackluster performances against Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman, Mauricio Rua has been born again hard as the UFC's undisputed light-heavyweight champion of the world. The division's belt has changed hands five times in the past three years, but after Saturday night's dominating and aggressive performance by Shogun, I can't see him going anywhere for a while. Rua looks every bit the part of the best 205-lb fighter in the world.

Fedor's Most Dangerous Opponent: His Management

I'm saying it now: the enigmatic Russian heavyweight fighting legend known as Fedor Emelianenko is in danger of becoming irrelevant.

I will give Dana White his due credit. He saw two years ago an erratic pattern of questionable decision-making from Fedor's handlers, and after talks to acquire Fedor fell through, the UFC president angered fans all over the world when he referred to the PRIDE legend as "a farce."

It turns out Dana White was right. While the UFC's heavyweight picture becomes increasingly complicated due to the incredible depth and parity in the division, Strikeforce scrounges around to find reputable advertising partners to support broadcasts of "title" fights with any name fighter who will give sign a contract with them.

Get this. Strikeforce is talking about matching Fedor - ostensibly the world's #1 pound-for-pound fighter and top heavyweight - against Fabricio Werdum, an accomplished and competitive heavyweight who most recently ground out a split decision against Antonion "Bigfoot" Silva. Meanwhile, Emelianenko's most recent victim, Brett Rogers, is fighting a puffy Dutch powerlifter and K-1 kickboxer for the frickin' belt.

I don't get it. I may be only a fan of MMA, but this doesn't make any sense. Shouldn't the #1 heavyweight be facing the world's #2 heavyweight? Werdum, who was cut by the UFC after being stopped by hammer-fisted contender Junior Dos Santos, is a good fighter, but he isn't #2 by any stretch of the imagination. His presence in the MMA Weekly world heavyweight top-10 at all might be open to debate.

Brock Lesnar...Shane Carwin...Junior Dos Santos...Cain Velasquez. These fighters all have one thing in common: (A.) they've won against top-level talent, and (B.) done so convincingly. These fighters represent the only opponents worthy of fighting for the title of "greatest heavyweight on the planet."

Sigh...I've come to the conclusion that the opponent most likely to defeat Fedor is his management. Assuming they are responsible for his latest career decisions, they are the ones who are most likely to dethrone him as the world's top heavyweight and arguable top fighter in any weight class.

I may have considered myself Fedor's greatest fan, but I'm so completely disgusted with his management right now. It doesn't matter if he's not willfully dodging the UFC's menacing talent pool, because the net effect is the same. At the end of the day, the fans don't get to see the top guy fighting the top guys, and that sucks.

WEC 48: "No Way Jose" Aldo Chops Down Former Champ Faber

I just got finished watching Jose Aldo literally kick the crap out of Urijah Faber. As I watched this fight, it occurred to me that I might be watching the ascending curve of a Hubbert's Peak of leg kicks in MMA. Lately, more fights are being decided by leg kicks...Lyoto Machida, Manhoef vs. Lawler, Hughes vs. Renzo, and now Jose Aldo. It wasn't too long ago that Forrest Griffin, won a title by chopping down Rampage Jackson's lead leg with sickening Louisville Slugger leg kicks. Thiago Alves' stegosaurus-tail-whip looked like it was going to hobble Josh Koscheck.

I kind of expect to see two things happen now. First, more fighters will start to employ leg kicks. Second, this will drive the evolution of standup to something maybe more tentative or involving more footwork. Too many guys lose fights standing in place absorbing leg kicks on the lead leg. I don't know if they think they can sacrifice it for positioning, or if the leg is numb after the first few kicks, but if I were playing fighters against one another in a video game I'd be retreating out of their range. (Remember the arcade version of Capcom's Street Fighter? There was always some fucker who would win fight after fight doing the same stupid-but-devastatingly-effective move over and over and over again.)

Once people start to catch on and the fight game evolves, I expect to see a new and exciting striking game.

Renzo Gracie: Good Fighter, Great Speaker

Visiting Yahoo's MMA UFC section I saw a video clip of this UFC 112 publicity event. Prior to this I'd heard of Renzo Gracie, didn't know much about him aside from his underwhelming disqualification win over Frank Shamrock and his association with Matt Serra.

I was surprised to find Renzo's talk very entertaining; anyone can watch this video and learn something about how to make a concise point in an engaging fashion. The guy is a natural-born public speaker:

Good instruction is about communication, and if this is any indication Renzo is probably an outstanding teacher.

Post-UFC 111 Reflections on Shane Carwin and Dan Hardy

UFC 111 was entertaining but first let me air a couple grievances:

• My predictions about Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera show how much little I know about Jones' game. That kid has killer instinct. He also has a violent streak that I find disturbing; he makes graphically violent use of his elbows in a way that I think will probably influence a change in MMA rules.
• I watched UFC 111 standing up at Buffalo Wild Wings. The place was packed, we ordered wings and ate them standing up like poor grad students with no furniture. The service was terrible, too. How hard is it to nuke some mini-corn dogs? What can you do. People have endured greater hardships. :)

UFC 111: Dan is Hardy

Dan Hardy was GAME. The kid is tough, and even with absolutely no wrestling skills he's a excellent matchup for GSP. He went five rounds with the champ and took little visible damage (connective tissue notwithstanding.) He successfully escaped from what looked like deep armbar and kimura attempts by St. Pierre and ended the fight with a smile on his face. While we didn't get to see him land any real significant shots, he looked light on his feet and quick enough to get inside and out, easily matching GSP's quickness. If he gets some functional wrestling skills into his repertoire I wouldn't not be the least bit surprised to see a rematch. The division and the sport need more tough, respectful fighters like this and the fans will always tune in to see the guy who wants to end fights.

UFC 111: Another Smothertastic GSP Title Defense

I love GSP, he's well-rounded, polite, respectful, and just great for the sport. But he's become a little boring to watch lately. Fortunately, St. Pierre seems to be painfully aware of his frustrating inability to finish his last few opponents. Is he playing it safe? Probably not; there's nowhere to hide at the top of the division. Is he being conservative on the feet? Definitely. He knows that when two guys stand in front of one another and just throw haymakers, the first one to connect wins. That's not fighting, that's foolhardy.

Still, he's garnered some criticism for his reliance on wrestling, and is clearly upset at the perception that his reliance on his dominant wrestling is the "easy way out." Someone somewhere pointed Anderson Silva's snoozer against Thales "Crabman" Leites, and how Forrest Griffin paid the price for the criticism that followed. While St. Pierre demonstrated unequivocal dominance over his challenger, he was extremely critical of his own inability to finish the underdog Hardy.

I think George's next opponent should probably stock up on Band-Aids and Ibuprofen.

UFC 111: Shane Carwin Changes Middle Name to "F*cking"

Holy crap, Shane. This is reality; have we met? Seriously, we all knew Carwin was undefeated, we all knew his wins have all been first-round KO's, but did anyone see expect to see such explosive finishing power from a guy that size? Plenty of fighters know how to tie opponents up and wear them down in a clinch to eke out that "W" but rarely do we ever get to see such a devastatingly effective application of dirty boxing. Carwin didn't win because he's bigger or stronger; he won the fight because he's talented as a fighter. That work he did against the cage, getting wrist control and then delivering the uppercuts...it just defies description. I'm hesitant to keep rambling on because if this fight was any indication, there's more where that came from and we may see it in July. If there's a heavyweight opponent tailor-made for Brock Lesnar, it's Shane F*cking Carwin.

UFC 111: Frank Mir - Oh, The Humanity

Watching an unconscious Frank Mir, face down on the canvas, get pummeled by Shane Carwin was a horrific experience. After his brutal defeat by Lesnar, it warmed my heart to see Frank bounce back against Cheik Kongo. It's clear to me after this fight, however, that Mir will have to employ a very different strategy in order to be competitive against this new crop of heavyweight fighters. He may never match their strength or quickness, nor their killer instinct. What Frank has that other heavyweights lack is a world-class submissions game, and I can see him having success in the division with a renewed focus on grappling. Of course, what do I know? I've never set foot in the cage. As an avid fan, I just like Frank, and I'd like to see him win again. I wanted to see him win Saturday, but my guess is he'll be the first to say the better man won. I hope he bounces back with a string of wins before he retires a legend, hopefully to the broadcasting booth.

UFC on Versus: Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera - Predictions

UFC is airs a free event on the Versus network tomorrow (Sunday, March 21st.) Former up-and-comer Brandon "The Truth" Vera faces current up-and-comer Jon "Bones" Jones, a 205-lb non-title bout. Considering the popularity/notoriety of these two fighters, chances are probably good that the winner of this matchup is only another win away from being the top light-heavyweight contender.

Brandon Vera, God love him, is for some reason one fighter fans love to hate. He may have inherited this role from Tim Sylvia after being clinched to a decision by the former UFC heavyweight champion in a clinchy snoozer. Vera, an athletic fighter with a large but unimposing frame, never quite looked the part of a legitimate heavyweight and after his loss to Sylvia he dropped to 205lbs. Vera has looked fast at light-heavyweight but his more conservative style hasn't won him any fans nor many fights, as he's dropped two decisions to Couture and Jardine. Vera needs to turn on the charm; he's under-performing and he knows it.

Jon Jones, his opponent, is probably the more talented fighter but is rough around the edges. A decision victory over iron man Stephan Bonnar showed us a dazzling array of striking and grappling skills, but also showed us room for improvement when he ran out of gas in round three and spent the rest of the time dodging advances.

Here's how I give the respective advantages in this fight:

Talent: Jones

Skill: Tie

Aggression: Jones

Experience: Vera

Size: Vera

It's a split. If Vera plays a conservative fight again, his experience and cardio may let him grind out a close decision.

Either way, I can't see this fight being finished via submission or TKO. Both of these fighters are simply too conservative; I can't see this fight going to the ground, and I definitely don't see these two standing and trading.

In the card's other featured fight, Brazilian heavyweights Gabe Gonzaga and Junior Dos Santos face off to determine who hops in line as the next contender.

Gabriel Gonzaga is a well-rounded heavyweight who will go down in history as the Man Who Cro-Copped Cro Cop. He has a lot of experience facing top division talent, but his knockout loss last year to Shane Carwin - a fight he was hitherto doing well in - leave a lot questions.

Junior Dos Santos is a heavyweight who doesn't need to be well-rounded, because he is a punching machine. No other heavyweight has hands as fast and heavy as Dos Santos, who punished Cro Cop into semi-retirement, and then battered new signee Gilbert Yvel right back out of the organization. Dos Santos is more than like a Cyberdine Systems Model T-101 sent from the future to knock out Brock Lesnar.

Predictions: Vera by close decision, Dos Santos by knockout.

What I Learned from WEC 47

WEC 47 was bittersweet and poignant, suspenseful and anticlimactic.  I was reminded was reminded that styles are what make fights, and I learned that a perceived advantage means nothing when push comes to shove.

Fans of former bantamweight champion Miguel Torres were eager to see the lanky East Chicago brawler return to form and earn a shot at rematching the man who clobbered him senseless, Brian Bowles.  

Standing in the way, however, was up-and-comer Joseph Benavidez, a compact powerhouse who left no question that he'd done his homework.  Towering over his smaller opponent, Torres was expected to give Benavidez fits with his reach, but Benavidez had no trouble getting inside.  He easily danced away from most of Torres' wicked jabs, negating the former champion's 12" reach advantage, and scored easy takedowns with superior speed and quickness.  Benavidez' compact physicality seemed to make it difficult for Torres to mount any submission attempts from the bottom position, and spent most of the time on his back scrambling to his feet or trying to avoid damage, which eventually came in the form of an elbow.  Bloodied and overwhelmed, the emotional Torres charged Benavidez only to get caught in an iron choke, where he tapped out.

Hindsight being 20/20, it was a matchup that favored Benavidez.  Torres, a notoriously emotional fighter with a haphazard style that gets him banged up, was coming off not just a loss but a vicious first-round knockout.  Combined with his tendency to perhaps over-train, the emotional intangibles were against him.  Stylistically, we've never seen Torres do real well against quicker and more compact fighters with superior strength and wrestling.  His submission skills proved useless against an opponent who, for practical purposes, didn't have long enough arms to even arm bar.

In the main event, Brian Bowles faced challenger Dominic Cruz, a former featherweight undefeated at 135lbs.  Cruz' elusive but effective "monkey on meth" offense confused the audience, the camera operators, and most of all his opponent.  Bowles, who apparently broke his hand on the first punch, wasn't able to establish any rhythm against Cruz.  After not answering the bell for round 3, Cruz was given the TKO.  

An unsatisfying victory because of the injury, but that notwithstanding, Cruz' footwork, counter-punching and incredible timing combined with excellent wrestling were likely going to overwhelm Bowles anyway.  His game plan and execution were a lot to overcome, broken hand or not.

Cruz looks now to defend against Benavidez, whom he defeated via decision on his way to the belt.

The WEC is replete with sub-lightweight talent, and styles as a factor in the outcome of any given matchup seem to be amplified at these lighter weights.  Something about the speed, the power-to-weight ratios...I'm sure there's a calculus function that describes the relationship.  Anyway pretty exciting stuff to watch.

Let's hope Miguel gets back on track.  Anymore he may be at a distinct disadvantage at bantamweight, with his lanky physique and brawling style.  Cruz, Benavidez and Bowles have enough talent between them to keep Torres away from the 135-lb belt.