Awesome Fights This Weekend on UFC on FOX 3

I wasn't expecting much from UFC on FOX 3 until I actually looked at the main card. There are some badass fights this weekend. (Commercials do suck, but at least they're produced better than the hour's worth of house ad filler we are forced to sit through during a typical $60 pay-per-view broadcast.) Here are the three fights I'm most enthused about:


(Note: though I fail to mention Pat Barry here, it's no disrespect and quite the opposite in fact...the guy brings it every fight, win, lose or double-KO. If Barry's on the card, entertainment is a foregone conclusion.)

1. Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz
Until he ran into the neutralizing energy vortex that is Benson Henderson, Jim Miller was on the fast track to a title shot. Miller is a stud at lightweight; he seems stronger than average in the class, has a solid foundation in wrestling, throws bombs, and most importantly fights a smart game. Like most victims of natural disasters, he simply had no way of preparing for Benson Henderson until it was too late. 

Nate Diaz is the perfect test to see if Miller is still a champion simply waiting to happen. Diaz is experienced, fearless, creative and simply does not fatigue. He also sports a big reach advantage over Miller which, like his older brother Nick, he can put to great use landing accurate shots in volume. If Jim Miller's going to survive Diaz' "rock-em-sock-em-robot" routine he'll have to start fast and put him away early (or otherwise suplex him for three rounds, a la Rory McDonald.)

2. Josh Koscheck vs. Johnny Hendricks

Koscheck and Hendricks have something in common: neither have any interest in wrestling Jon Fitch for three rounds inside the Octagon. Hendricks took the fight anyway, though, which became an instant classic when Hendricks one-punch KO'd the notoriously durable Fitch in just under 12 seconds. Though Hendricks' historic win brought him many new fans overnight, his MMA career is still young and there's no question he still feels he has a lot to prove.

Meanwhile, Fitch's close friend and former training partner Koscheck has proven nearly unbeatable, acting almost as a proverbial filter between the UFC's potential and bonafide welterweight contenders. Outside of current champ George St. Pierre, no fighter seems able to match Koscheck's wrestling ability, a fact which seems to have given him the confidence to assume his role of the UFC's token headhunter. While the resilient Mike Pierce gave him fits in their split decision slugfest back in February, Koscheck's veteran composure and superior wrestling secured him the victory. For Johnny Hendricks to get the upset victory, he'll have overcome a considerable experience gap while also contending with (arguably) the most aggressive striker he has faced to date in Josh Koscheck

3. Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares

Of the possible guest stars currently being considered for future episodes of "The Anderson Silva Show," Alan Belcher is probably the most intriguing. A promising middleweight whose career was nearly ended by eye surgery, Belcher is an exciting, dynamic and incredibly well-rounded whose UFC highlight reel includes dumping Patrick Cote upside his head in a picture-perfect pile driver. 

If Belcher normally throws a lot of leg kicks, we shouldn't be surprised if he alters his game plan on Saturday night when he faces the infamous leg-mangler known as Rousimar Palhares. Short, stock and powerful, Rousimar has become known for his unique mastery of offensive Brazilian jiu-jitsu, having won 4 of his last 5 victories by way of leg lock. So effective are Palhares' submissions that Belcher will undoubtedly have to account for it or risk being ensnared in the Brazilian's iron grip.

Historically, I've often found that cards and match-ups which look only mildly entertaining on paper usually play out that way. Conversely, cards which look like they'll be exciting nearly always deliver. I don't know why that is, or what it means. Maybe the UFC matchmakers just know what they're doing. 

Anyway, be sure tune in Saturday night. These look like good fights, and I'll be surprised if I'm wrong.

Five Reasons Dos Santos vs. Fedor Makes Sense

The future looks grim for UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Overeem. Though Alistair Overeem's failed drug test comes as no surprise to those who have followed him since his lanky K-1 days, the timing couldn't be much worse. Desperate fans have taken to lobbying via Twitter for journeyman Mark Hunt as a potential replacement to face Junior Dos Santos (a rumor summarily quashed by UFC President Dana White.)

With the short list of suitable replacements looking very short indeed, a novel idea would be for White to sign Russian legend Fedor Emelianenko to challenge Dos Santos for the UFC heavyweight title.

Given White's acrimonious history with Fedor's management, the possibility seems as unlikely to ever become a reality as it is intriguing, but there is real logic behind it. Considering White's promotional savvy and history of confounding expectations, one should never say never.

Here are five reasons why Dos Santos vs. Fedor actually makes a lot of sense.

#1: Contention Doesn't Matter, It's a Business

Although Fedor's recent record may not seem to warrant an immediate UFC title shot, the determination of UFC contenders historically seems more academic than quantitative. From Forest Griffin and Brock Lesnar to Dan Hardy and more, many fan favorites have been given a fast track to the title shot as matchmakers strategically select the most marketable and stylistically interesting fighters from their pool of candidates.

While the UFC's "black box" title contention algorithm may not satisfy purists or statisticians, their fan-driven approach to matchmaking has paid off with record pay-per-view sales, and there's no question Dana White has done a great job selling fans the fights they want to see.

#2: Marketability

Whether you consider him the world's greatest or completely overrated, Fedor Emelianenko is without question responsible for some of the most exciting moments in mixed martial arts history. With a fearless style that keeps fans around the world on the edges of their seats, Fedor's star power gives him the unique leverage to repeatedly pass on a UFC contract and yet still maintain a lucrative fighting career.

Junior Dos Santos has more in common with Fedor than perhaps any other professional fighter. The Brazilian's jovial, everyman personality and sense of humility stands in ironic contrast to the reputation he has earned as the world's most feared heavyweight striker.

For a young sport still struggling with an image problem, a main event pairing two world-class fighters and exemplary sportsmen gives the UFC an opportunity to make inroads into markets their current brand cannot reach.

#3: Personnel Shortages

The recent departure of pay-per-view goliath Brock Lesnar leaves a gaping hole in the UFC's heavyweight division. With main event regulars Shane Carwin and "Minotauro" Noguiera out due to injury and younger prospects Brendan Schaub and Matt Mitrione ostensibly out of contention due to recent losses, the UFC is short on any obvious choices for a replacement for Overeem.

The addition of Fedor Emelianenko to the UFC's heavyweight division not only gives Zuffa an instant replacement for Overeem but a monopoly on MMA's heavyweight superstars. Although Fedor is undersized compared to the UFC's heavyweights, he has made a career of fighting and beating bigger, stronger opponents (including two former UFC heavyweight champions, Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski.)

#4: The Timing is Perfect

This spring's run of twelve consecutive weeks without a pay-per-view event represents the longest UFC pay-per-view drought in recent history. With The Ultimate Fighter TV ratings on a steady decline, the undoing of Dos Santos vs. Overeem threatens to slam the brakes on the UFC's summer momentum.

Meanwhile, Fedor Emelianenko has been training all spring, ostensibly in preparation for a tentative early summer match up with a yet-unnamed opponent from a short list of mid-tier fighters. After three consecutive losses in Strikeforce - the first of his career - Fedor's two most recent victories show improvement upon his exciting but arguably reckless style.

At a time when MMA is getting most of its publicity for the wrong reasons (see: TRT, pro wrestling,) the addition of Fedor to UFC 146 would bring much-needed appeal and instant legitimacy to the event.

#5: It's a Win-Win Situation for Dana White

Since walking away from tedious and protracted negotiations with Fedor's management two years ago, White has gone on the record to remind the world just how "overrated" he believed the Russian fighter always was. In considering Emelianenko as a last-minute replacement for Overeem, therefore, White may seem to be faced with a dilemma and risk looking like a hypocrite.

As a savvy business promoter, however, White probably knows he can't lose. If Dos Santos wins, White was right about Fedor all along, but conversely if Fedor manages to upset Dos Santos, the world's greatest is now the exclusive property of Zuffa, LLC. Either way, there's no risk here for Zuffa. Everyone wins.

UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem Preview

UFC 141 is upon us, and up for grabs tonight is the #1 heavyweight contender spot when former heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar faces behemoth Dutch kickboxer and current Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem.

What We Know

Although tonight's main event is ostensibly intended to produce a challenger for current champ Junior Dos Santos, it has largely been marketed on the "freak show" angle with far more attention being given to the size of the two fighters than their respective fighting styles.

Alistair Overeem matches Lesnar's size and strength, and as the world's top heavyweight kickboxer seems to have an immense advantage against as tentative striker as Lesnar. Overeem showcased his athleticism and powerful sprawl against Fabricio Werdum, easily shrugging off all takedown attempts from the Brazilian.

Critics of Overeem, however, are quick to point out the distinction between grappling takedowns, which more akin to dragging opponents to the ground - and more explosive folkstyle wrestling takedowns, which rely on driving through takedowns to control the opponent's center of gravity.

At six-foot-five and a lean 260 pounds, Overeem's He-Man action figure physique is as intimidating as any the sport has ever seen. Overeem builds upon that psychological advantage with a style that is noticeably more aggressive in the opening moments of the fight, and few of his opponents are able to weather the devastating combination of kicks, punches and knees.

Those who do last more than one round with Overeem expend a lot of energy getting out of harm's way; Fabricio Werdum, who survived three rounds with the champion, found himself too exhausted to mount any real counter-offense and essentially provided Overeem with three rounds of target practice.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Lesnar, while not considered a well-rounded mixed martial artist, is as pure a fighting athlete as anyone in the game. His simple style of

controlling the pace and nature of the fight is informed by his experience as a Division-1 NCAA champion wrestler; Brock uses outstanding wrestling instincts and superior strength and conditioning to physically overwhelm his opponents. Lesnar's game plan is simple: run people over, take them out of their comfort zones and into his world, and keep them there.

It's also worthy of note that Lesnar, a former professional wrestler who seems comfortable in the role of the heel, is a bully of a finisher who seems energized by momentum. If Lesnar takes Overeem down and is able to draw blood, the hammer fists will start raining down with conviction. As Frank Mir and Randy Couture both know, there's not much chance of escape once one enters Brock Lesnar's comfort zone.

Lesnar's killer instinct contrasts strongly with Overeem's most recent outing, a lackluster title defense which showed flashes of striking brilliance but left audiences bored with Overeem's inability or unwillingness to finish the seemingly outmatched Werdum.

After losing his title rather painfully to a game Cain Velasquez, Lesnar suffered a second bout with diverticulitis which required surgery. Though he appeared strong and healthy at yesterday's weigh-ins, Lesnar will need to overcome the ring rust which seems to hamper fighters who spend long periods away from competition.

One time heavyweight up-and-comers Todd Duffee and Brett Rogers can both testify that Alistair Overeem will likely not give Lesnar very long to decide whether or not he's ready for action.

UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson - Something to Prove vs. Nothing to Lose

With the UFC's experimental FOX television debut safely behind us, commercial-free MMA action returns tonight headlined by one of the most anticipated main events of the year. Former UFC light heavyweight champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua faces off with Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Dan Henderson in a long-awaited meeting of the former PRIDE rivals.

What We Know

Mauricio Rua entered the UFC to high hopes, but his Octagon career has been an emotional roller coaster for fans. After dropping a closely contested title decision to former champion Lyoto Machida, Rua bounced back and won the belt in a rematch, only to be immediately sidelined with knee surgery.

Following a long recovery, Rua returned to defend his title only to have it summarily stripped away by Jon "Bones" Jones in a one-sided TKO loss which was not particularly competitive.

Rua's most recent outing, a brilliant first-round knockout of Griffin which avenged that inauspicious UFC debut, showed a return to form the Brazilian must maintain to get back into contention. A dominant victory over Dan Henderson might fast-track Shogun to another title shot.

At 41 years of age Henderson may not have time on his side, but his dramatic victory over the legendary Fedor Emelianenko proved he can still get the job done against younger and more aggressive opponents.

Stung early and knocked down early by Fedor's frenetic striking attack, the cagey veteran was able to reverse positions and deliver a blind-side uppercut that dropped Fedor and led to a first-round TKO.

Both Rua and Henderson have made names for themselves as strikers, though with markedly different styles. Rua uses speed, great boxing and devastating leg and body kicks to keep opponents on the defensive, while Henderson relies more on timing and power to land the big overhand right which has become his signature.

While Henderson's superb ability to close the distance and connect will likely factor into Rua's strategy entering this fight, he will probably be more focused on nullifying Henderson's distinct advantage as a wrestler. By using superior quickness and landing the same vicious leg kicks he used to dismantle Lyoto Machida, Rua may be able to wear down the veteran wrestler and chip away at his ability to shoot.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Superstitious fans will appreciate the fact that Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski, Brett Rogers, Fabricio Werdum, and Antonio Silva each fought Fedor Emelianenko and then immediately turned in dismal follow-up performances. Though it's improbably Henderson will fall completely flat in his return to the Octagon, turning in a strong performance against Rua will mean breaking the "Fedor Curse."

Had he decided to retire, Henderson's win over Emelianenko would have provided a definitive conclusion to a long and illustrious MMA career.

Rua, on the other hand, is just one fight removed from a lopsided beat-down at the hands of Jon Jones, and at 29 years old is only reaching the prime of his fighting career.

Like most fights, this one may be about unfinished business. All things being equal (or a wash, anyway,) the odds usually favor the fighter who has something left to prove.

Off-Topic: The Opposite of Good is Not Evil; it's Apathy

Last month, Mediacom reached an important milestone by adding a slew of HD channels including the high-definition feed of InDemand, the carrier for UFC pay-per-view events. It only took two years of desperate phone calls and email groveling to Mediacom, InDemand and even Zuffa for me to pull this off (yes, me...I alone am responsible.)

Mediacom sales reps and their loved ones can rest easy now that UFC in HD - something they promised me when upgrading my digital box two years ago - actually exists.

Sadly, a separate experience with Mediacom customer service recently showed me that while they're gradually (and grudgingly) making some investments in their hardware infrastructure, it's business as usual in the service department.

In my "spare time" I manage rental properties. While I cannot endorse rental property management as a hobby, pastime or livelihood, I will concede that you benefit immeasurably from the ass-kicking the Universe sees fit to give you. Any notions of easy money, passive income and the leisurely life of a land baron quickly evaporate while you struggle in 95-degree heat to remove a monolithic air conditioner from a college apartment window as the 20 year-old female tenants look on and offer kindly to help. "Nah, it's cool," you grunt, as your lumbar vertebra audibly adjust and pigeon droppings and condensation spill all over you.

Such experiences teach one humility.

That said, nothing prepared me for the unparalleled apathy I encountered when I phoned Mediacom to reconnect cables following a flat roof replacement.

For years, Mediacom's contract installers had had free reign on our roof and common building areas, routing cables as necessary without any thought to aesthetics, practicality or the integrity of the roof. All cables entered the roof crudely via holes bored with spade bits, slathered with silicone goo. The roof itself featured a breathtaking tangled web of coaxial cables. When our roofing company recently removed the old taking, they couldn't find any connectors to remove, and thus in the interest of time took the initiative to cut the cables altogether.

Fair enough. Roofers have enough variables to deal with. To their credit, they had the foresight to install a nice rugged PVC fitting to properly conduct such cables in the future.

Now that they're finished, I attempted to phone Mediacom in order to have a technician visit the site to restore service and reconnect cables while routing them properly.

I may just as well have asked them if I could have cable Internet delivered to a boat.

After wading through 5 minutes of muzak and IVR hurdles and being summarily transferred three times (repeating myself each time,) I found myself talking to speaking with a fantastically unimaginative and unmotivated customer service representative.

While this friendly CSR seemed to comprehend my issue well enough, the notion of a property manager calling on behalf of all the building's tenant subscribers just plain blew his mind. Rather than acknowledging the actual problem, he busied himself trying to classifying the issue. "Is this commercial or is it residential?" he asked, confounded by the lack of granular and extraneous details. "Is this for a business?" Unwilling to deviate from the standard CSR support call algorithm, he repeated himself.

Recognizing the dreaded infinite recursion loop, I cut my losses. I politely told him I would simply call the tenants individually and ask them to phone the cable company individually. (The technicians visiting the site would be forced to contact me to gain access to the roof.)

UFC 130: Nelson vs. Mir Prediction

UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill is a tribute to Zuffa's talented marketing team, the result of clever last-minute matchmaking and some inspired promotion.

Earlier this year, a potentially intriguing match-up between former light-heavyweight champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and resurgent contender Thiago Silva was scrubbed. Silva, back in the title picture after posting an impressive and dominating victory over Brandon "The Truth" Vera, was yanked from the schedule after his UFC 125 pre-fight urinalysis tested positive for banned substances.

If the absence of Jackson vs. Silva slowed down the UFC 130 hype machine, losing the highly-anticipated main event, a rubber match between 155lb champion Frankie "The Answer" Edgar and #1 contender Gray "Bully" Maynard, threatened to bring it to a grinding halt. Edgar and Maynard, arguably the two most evenly-matched fighters in the division, were expected to give fans their money's worth after thrilling fans on New Year's Day in a five-round slobberknocker that ended in (what else) a majority draw.

Fortunately, the UFC's roster is deep enough to furnish Saturday night's main card with plenty of talented fighters. The match-up I find the most compelling is the heavyweight pairing of former champ Frank Mir vs. Roy "Big Country" Nelson.

What We Know

Originally known for his jiu-jitsu skills, Mir has made a name for himself in recent years as one of the UFC's more well-rounded big men. He showcased ever-improving stand-up skills against Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cheick Kongo, but brutal stoppage losses to Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin put his status as a bona fide contender in question.

Roy Nelson is in many ways the anti-Frank Mir; pudgy, irreverent and seemingly incapable of taking himself seriously. While Nelson drew criticism on TUF for coasting through preliminary bouts, his stunning knock-out of Brendan Schaub in the season finale showcased the former IFL champion's skill. Even as Nelson's egregious mullet and self-deprecating arena entrance (to the tune of Weird Al Yankovic's "Fat") provide comic relief, his stunning knock-outs of Schaub and Stefan Struve serve to remind fans and opponents that Nelson is an accomplished and dangerous veteran.

What Could Happen

There's little question Frank Mir enters this fight with an advantage in nearly every department - at least on paper. A cerebral, analytical fighter known for tailoring opponent-specific game plans, Mir expects to capitalize on both a discernible size advantage as well as what he believes is superior stand-up technique.

Where Nelson shines is in the intangibles department. Undersized at heavyweight and sporting a giant pot belly, Nelson uses graceful footwork, poise under pressure and deceptive athleticism to turn the tables on opponents, a quality not unlike Fedor Emelianenko. Nelson's most recent fight, a decisive loss to #1 contender Junior Dos Santos, was nonetheless a competitive brawl that not only showed Nelson's skill but also his toughness.

Mir may be bigger and in better shape, and he may even have a sound game plan for Nelson, but unfortunately the element of surprise always seems to favor Mir's opponents. That trend doesn't bode well against an opponent like Nelson, who since entering the UFC has only exceeded expectations.

If recent history is any indication, we shouldn't be shocked to see Roy Nelson walk away with a "Knockout of the Night" bonus.

UFC 129: GSP vs. Shields Pre-Fight Analysis

Toronto hosts the UFC on April 30th in a first-ever stadium event which will be the largest (and loudest) North American event in MMA history. UFC 129's main event finds welterweight champion George St. Pierre facing top contender and former Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields. Shields, promised a title shot while in negotiations with Dana White, enters a UFC 170-lb division effectively cleaned out by the champion. While fans haven't exactly been clamoring to see two elite wrestlers face off in a five-round main event, in the current welterweight landscape this match up is the only that makes sense.

What We Know

Since reclaiming his belt in 2008 from Matt Serra, George St. Pierre has been a juggernaut at 170 pounds. Dominating victories over the world-class welterweights including Jon Fitch, Thiago Alves, BJ Penn and Josh Koscheck - have fueled reasonable speculation about a move to the UFC's middleweight division.

Making St. Pierre's record more impressive is the fact that in five title defenses, the champion hasn't lost a single round on the score cards. For all the bold predictions and best efforts of the UFC's welterweight contenders, not one has been able to find an answer for GSP's superior athleticism or his relentless and well-rounded attack.

Enter Jake Shields - a relative UFC newcomer and veteran problem-solver who has made a career out of exceeding expectations. With superior wrestling, conditioning and jiu-jitsu, the former collegiate wrestling national champion and top grappler has managed to out-work or otherwise submit many of the world's top fighters over the last six years; Shields' 15-fight win streak includes victories over Carlos Condit, Yushin Okami and most recently Dan Henderson.

What the Tapes Don't Show

Arguably the most athletic fighter in the division, St. Pierre wins - and makes it look pretty easy - by taking opponents out of their comfort zones and keeping them there. While he has been criticized recently as "boring" for not finishing more fights, the game plans he chooses to employ are varied and dynamic, and often involve attacking (and beating) opponents at their strengths. The champion's workhorse style doesn't have the instant replay appeal of fighters like Fedor Emelianenko or Anderson Silva, but to date St. Pierre's smothering offense has proven nearly impossible for any opponent to overcome.

Challenger Jake Shields brings a potentially problematic set of attributes to the table as St. Pierre's opponent. While the champion has handled kick boxers, muy thai fighters and wrestlers all with relative ease, he has yet to face anyone with Shields' combination of wrestling, submissions and most importantly - experience. As champion, Shields has had his chin, his conditioning and his skills tested and has always managed to emerge victorious. His proven ability to bounce back, turn the tables and find a way to win is what sets Jake Shields apart from all previous challengers.

Meanwhile, George St. Pierre hasn't lost a single round since regaining his belt. Members of Shields' camp have an explanation for St. Pierre's routine dominance over the division, pointing out that none his opponents have been able to test the champion. Shields' key to victory may be to take a page out of the champion's book and drag him out of his comfort zone into unknown territory.

How The Fight Could Go

Another key to solving St. Pierre may be understanding his philosophy, which treats MMA more like chess than brawling. One after another, St. Pierre's challengers swing for the fences, strike out and eventually crumble under his pressure. For all the explanations and analyses made, St. Pierre has not yet faced an opponent who can match his simple desire to win.

On Saturday night, however, that may change. Many believe Shields' submission skills are what make him such a dangerous contender, but the California native's cast-iron work ethic and "never-say-die" attitude that make him unique. With the heart of a champion and the experience to match, Jake Shields could be the first guy to take GSP into dark water.

Then again...he may not. George St. Pierre may simply be better than everyone else.