Awesome Fights This Weekend on UFC on FOX 3

I wasn't expecting much from UFC on FOX 3 until I actually looked at the main card. There are some badass fights this weekend. (Commercials do suck, but at least they're produced better than the hour's worth of house ad filler we are forced to sit through during a typical $60 pay-per-view broadcast.) Here are the three fights I'm most enthused about:


(Note: though I fail to mention Pat Barry here, it's no disrespect and quite the opposite in fact...the guy brings it every fight, win, lose or double-KO. If Barry's on the card, entertainment is a foregone conclusion.)

1. Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz
Until he ran into the neutralizing energy vortex that is Benson Henderson, Jim Miller was on the fast track to a title shot. Miller is a stud at lightweight; he seems stronger than average in the class, has a solid foundation in wrestling, throws bombs, and most importantly fights a smart game. Like most victims of natural disasters, he simply had no way of preparing for Benson Henderson until it was too late. 

Nate Diaz is the perfect test to see if Miller is still a champion simply waiting to happen. Diaz is experienced, fearless, creative and simply does not fatigue. He also sports a big reach advantage over Miller which, like his older brother Nick, he can put to great use landing accurate shots in volume. If Jim Miller's going to survive Diaz' "rock-em-sock-em-robot" routine he'll have to start fast and put him away early (or otherwise suplex him for three rounds, a la Rory McDonald.)

2. Josh Koscheck vs. Johnny Hendricks

Koscheck and Hendricks have something in common: neither have any interest in wrestling Jon Fitch for three rounds inside the Octagon. Hendricks took the fight anyway, though, which became an instant classic when Hendricks one-punch KO'd the notoriously durable Fitch in just under 12 seconds. Though Hendricks' historic win brought him many new fans overnight, his MMA career is still young and there's no question he still feels he has a lot to prove.

Meanwhile, Fitch's close friend and former training partner Koscheck has proven nearly unbeatable, acting almost as a proverbial filter between the UFC's potential and bonafide welterweight contenders. Outside of current champ George St. Pierre, no fighter seems able to match Koscheck's wrestling ability, a fact which seems to have given him the confidence to assume his role of the UFC's token headhunter. While the resilient Mike Pierce gave him fits in their split decision slugfest back in February, Koscheck's veteran composure and superior wrestling secured him the victory. For Johnny Hendricks to get the upset victory, he'll have overcome a considerable experience gap while also contending with (arguably) the most aggressive striker he has faced to date in Josh Koscheck

3. Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares

Of the possible guest stars currently being considered for future episodes of "The Anderson Silva Show," Alan Belcher is probably the most intriguing. A promising middleweight whose career was nearly ended by eye surgery, Belcher is an exciting, dynamic and incredibly well-rounded whose UFC highlight reel includes dumping Patrick Cote upside his head in a picture-perfect pile driver. 

If Belcher normally throws a lot of leg kicks, we shouldn't be surprised if he alters his game plan on Saturday night when he faces the infamous leg-mangler known as Rousimar Palhares. Short, stock and powerful, Rousimar has become known for his unique mastery of offensive Brazilian jiu-jitsu, having won 4 of his last 5 victories by way of leg lock. So effective are Palhares' submissions that Belcher will undoubtedly have to account for it or risk being ensnared in the Brazilian's iron grip.

Historically, I've often found that cards and match-ups which look only mildly entertaining on paper usually play out that way. Conversely, cards which look like they'll be exciting nearly always deliver. I don't know why that is, or what it means. Maybe the UFC matchmakers just know what they're doing. 

Anyway, be sure tune in Saturday night. These look like good fights, and I'll be surprised if I'm wrong.

Five Reasons Dos Santos vs. Fedor Makes Sense

The future looks grim for UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Overeem. Though Alistair Overeem's failed drug test comes as no surprise to those who have followed him since his lanky K-1 days, the timing couldn't be much worse. Desperate fans have taken to lobbying via Twitter for journeyman Mark Hunt as a potential replacement to face Junior Dos Santos (a rumor summarily quashed by UFC President Dana White.)

With the short list of suitable replacements looking very short indeed, a novel idea would be for White to sign Russian legend Fedor Emelianenko to challenge Dos Santos for the UFC heavyweight title.

Given White's acrimonious history with Fedor's management, the possibility seems as unlikely to ever become a reality as it is intriguing, but there is real logic behind it. Considering White's promotional savvy and history of confounding expectations, one should never say never.

Here are five reasons why Dos Santos vs. Fedor actually makes a lot of sense.

#1: Contention Doesn't Matter, It's a Business

Although Fedor's recent record may not seem to warrant an immediate UFC title shot, the determination of UFC contenders historically seems more academic than quantitative. From Forest Griffin and Brock Lesnar to Dan Hardy and more, many fan favorites have been given a fast track to the title shot as matchmakers strategically select the most marketable and stylistically interesting fighters from their pool of candidates.

While the UFC's "black box" title contention algorithm may not satisfy purists or statisticians, their fan-driven approach to matchmaking has paid off with record pay-per-view sales, and there's no question Dana White has done a great job selling fans the fights they want to see.

#2: Marketability

Whether you consider him the world's greatest or completely overrated, Fedor Emelianenko is without question responsible for some of the most exciting moments in mixed martial arts history. With a fearless style that keeps fans around the world on the edges of their seats, Fedor's star power gives him the unique leverage to repeatedly pass on a UFC contract and yet still maintain a lucrative fighting career.

Junior Dos Santos has more in common with Fedor than perhaps any other professional fighter. The Brazilian's jovial, everyman personality and sense of humility stands in ironic contrast to the reputation he has earned as the world's most feared heavyweight striker.

For a young sport still struggling with an image problem, a main event pairing two world-class fighters and exemplary sportsmen gives the UFC an opportunity to make inroads into markets their current brand cannot reach.

#3: Personnel Shortages

The recent departure of pay-per-view goliath Brock Lesnar leaves a gaping hole in the UFC's heavyweight division. With main event regulars Shane Carwin and "Minotauro" Noguiera out due to injury and younger prospects Brendan Schaub and Matt Mitrione ostensibly out of contention due to recent losses, the UFC is short on any obvious choices for a replacement for Overeem.

The addition of Fedor Emelianenko to the UFC's heavyweight division not only gives Zuffa an instant replacement for Overeem but a monopoly on MMA's heavyweight superstars. Although Fedor is undersized compared to the UFC's heavyweights, he has made a career of fighting and beating bigger, stronger opponents (including two former UFC heavyweight champions, Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski.)

#4: The Timing is Perfect

This spring's run of twelve consecutive weeks without a pay-per-view event represents the longest UFC pay-per-view drought in recent history. With The Ultimate Fighter TV ratings on a steady decline, the undoing of Dos Santos vs. Overeem threatens to slam the brakes on the UFC's summer momentum.

Meanwhile, Fedor Emelianenko has been training all spring, ostensibly in preparation for a tentative early summer match up with a yet-unnamed opponent from a short list of mid-tier fighters. After three consecutive losses in Strikeforce - the first of his career - Fedor's two most recent victories show improvement upon his exciting but arguably reckless style.

At a time when MMA is getting most of its publicity for the wrong reasons (see: TRT, pro wrestling,) the addition of Fedor to UFC 146 would bring much-needed appeal and instant legitimacy to the event.

#5: It's a Win-Win Situation for Dana White

Since walking away from tedious and protracted negotiations with Fedor's management two years ago, White has gone on the record to remind the world just how "overrated" he believed the Russian fighter always was. In considering Emelianenko as a last-minute replacement for Overeem, therefore, White may seem to be faced with a dilemma and risk looking like a hypocrite.

As a savvy business promoter, however, White probably knows he can't lose. If Dos Santos wins, White was right about Fedor all along, but conversely if Fedor manages to upset Dos Santos, the world's greatest is now the exclusive property of Zuffa, LLC. Either way, there's no risk here for Zuffa. Everyone wins.