Post-UFC 111 Reflections on Shane Carwin and Dan Hardy

UFC 111 was entertaining but first let me air a couple grievances:

• My predictions about Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera show how much little I know about Jones' game. That kid has killer instinct. He also has a violent streak that I find disturbing; he makes graphically violent use of his elbows in a way that I think will probably influence a change in MMA rules.
• I watched UFC 111 standing up at Buffalo Wild Wings. The place was packed, we ordered wings and ate them standing up like poor grad students with no furniture. The service was terrible, too. How hard is it to nuke some mini-corn dogs? What can you do. People have endured greater hardships. :)

UFC 111: Dan is Hardy

Dan Hardy was GAME. The kid is tough, and even with absolutely no wrestling skills he's a excellent matchup for GSP. He went five rounds with the champ and took little visible damage (connective tissue notwithstanding.) He successfully escaped from what looked like deep armbar and kimura attempts by St. Pierre and ended the fight with a smile on his face. While we didn't get to see him land any real significant shots, he looked light on his feet and quick enough to get inside and out, easily matching GSP's quickness. If he gets some functional wrestling skills into his repertoire I wouldn't not be the least bit surprised to see a rematch. The division and the sport need more tough, respectful fighters like this and the fans will always tune in to see the guy who wants to end fights.

UFC 111: Another Smothertastic GSP Title Defense

I love GSP, he's well-rounded, polite, respectful, and just great for the sport. But he's become a little boring to watch lately. Fortunately, St. Pierre seems to be painfully aware of his frustrating inability to finish his last few opponents. Is he playing it safe? Probably not; there's nowhere to hide at the top of the division. Is he being conservative on the feet? Definitely. He knows that when two guys stand in front of one another and just throw haymakers, the first one to connect wins. That's not fighting, that's foolhardy.

Still, he's garnered some criticism for his reliance on wrestling, and is clearly upset at the perception that his reliance on his dominant wrestling is the "easy way out." Someone somewhere pointed Anderson Silva's snoozer against Thales "Crabman" Leites, and how Forrest Griffin paid the price for the criticism that followed. While St. Pierre demonstrated unequivocal dominance over his challenger, he was extremely critical of his own inability to finish the underdog Hardy.

I think George's next opponent should probably stock up on Band-Aids and Ibuprofen.

UFC 111: Shane Carwin Changes Middle Name to "F*cking"

Holy crap, Shane. This is reality; have we met? Seriously, we all knew Carwin was undefeated, we all knew his wins have all been first-round KO's, but did anyone see expect to see such explosive finishing power from a guy that size? Plenty of fighters know how to tie opponents up and wear them down in a clinch to eke out that "W" but rarely do we ever get to see such a devastatingly effective application of dirty boxing. Carwin didn't win because he's bigger or stronger; he won the fight because he's talented as a fighter. That work he did against the cage, getting wrist control and then delivering the uppercuts...it just defies description. I'm hesitant to keep rambling on because if this fight was any indication, there's more where that came from and we may see it in July. If there's a heavyweight opponent tailor-made for Brock Lesnar, it's Shane F*cking Carwin.

UFC 111: Frank Mir - Oh, The Humanity

Watching an unconscious Frank Mir, face down on the canvas, get pummeled by Shane Carwin was a horrific experience. After his brutal defeat by Lesnar, it warmed my heart to see Frank bounce back against Cheik Kongo. It's clear to me after this fight, however, that Mir will have to employ a very different strategy in order to be competitive against this new crop of heavyweight fighters. He may never match their strength or quickness, nor their killer instinct. What Frank has that other heavyweights lack is a world-class submissions game, and I can see him having success in the division with a renewed focus on grappling. Of course, what do I know? I've never set foot in the cage. As an avid fan, I just like Frank, and I'd like to see him win again. I wanted to see him win Saturday, but my guess is he'll be the first to say the better man won. I hope he bounces back with a string of wins before he retires a legend, hopefully to the broadcasting booth.

UFC on Versus: Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera - Predictions

UFC is airs a free event on the Versus network tomorrow (Sunday, March 21st.) Former up-and-comer Brandon "The Truth" Vera faces current up-and-comer Jon "Bones" Jones, a 205-lb non-title bout. Considering the popularity/notoriety of these two fighters, chances are probably good that the winner of this matchup is only another win away from being the top light-heavyweight contender.

Brandon Vera, God love him, is for some reason one fighter fans love to hate. He may have inherited this role from Tim Sylvia after being clinched to a decision by the former UFC heavyweight champion in a clinchy snoozer. Vera, an athletic fighter with a large but unimposing frame, never quite looked the part of a legitimate heavyweight and after his loss to Sylvia he dropped to 205lbs. Vera has looked fast at light-heavyweight but his more conservative style hasn't won him any fans nor many fights, as he's dropped two decisions to Couture and Jardine. Vera needs to turn on the charm; he's under-performing and he knows it.

Jon Jones, his opponent, is probably the more talented fighter but is rough around the edges. A decision victory over iron man Stephan Bonnar showed us a dazzling array of striking and grappling skills, but also showed us room for improvement when he ran out of gas in round three and spent the rest of the time dodging advances.

Here's how I give the respective advantages in this fight:

Talent: Jones

Skill: Tie

Aggression: Jones

Experience: Vera

Size: Vera

It's a split. If Vera plays a conservative fight again, his experience and cardio may let him grind out a close decision.

Either way, I can't see this fight being finished via submission or TKO. Both of these fighters are simply too conservative; I can't see this fight going to the ground, and I definitely don't see these two standing and trading.

In the card's other featured fight, Brazilian heavyweights Gabe Gonzaga and Junior Dos Santos face off to determine who hops in line as the next contender.

Gabriel Gonzaga is a well-rounded heavyweight who will go down in history as the Man Who Cro-Copped Cro Cop. He has a lot of experience facing top division talent, but his knockout loss last year to Shane Carwin - a fight he was hitherto doing well in - leave a lot questions.

Junior Dos Santos is a heavyweight who doesn't need to be well-rounded, because he is a punching machine. No other heavyweight has hands as fast and heavy as Dos Santos, who punished Cro Cop into semi-retirement, and then battered new signee Gilbert Yvel right back out of the organization. Dos Santos is more than like a Cyberdine Systems Model T-101 sent from the future to knock out Brock Lesnar.

Predictions: Vera by close decision, Dos Santos by knockout.

What I Learned from WEC 47

WEC 47 was bittersweet and poignant, suspenseful and anticlimactic.  I was reminded was reminded that styles are what make fights, and I learned that a perceived advantage means nothing when push comes to shove.

Fans of former bantamweight champion Miguel Torres were eager to see the lanky East Chicago brawler return to form and earn a shot at rematching the man who clobbered him senseless, Brian Bowles.  

Standing in the way, however, was up-and-comer Joseph Benavidez, a compact powerhouse who left no question that he'd done his homework.  Towering over his smaller opponent, Torres was expected to give Benavidez fits with his reach, but Benavidez had no trouble getting inside.  He easily danced away from most of Torres' wicked jabs, negating the former champion's 12" reach advantage, and scored easy takedowns with superior speed and quickness.  Benavidez' compact physicality seemed to make it difficult for Torres to mount any submission attempts from the bottom position, and spent most of the time on his back scrambling to his feet or trying to avoid damage, which eventually came in the form of an elbow.  Bloodied and overwhelmed, the emotional Torres charged Benavidez only to get caught in an iron choke, where he tapped out.

Hindsight being 20/20, it was a matchup that favored Benavidez.  Torres, a notoriously emotional fighter with a haphazard style that gets him banged up, was coming off not just a loss but a vicious first-round knockout.  Combined with his tendency to perhaps over-train, the emotional intangibles were against him.  Stylistically, we've never seen Torres do real well against quicker and more compact fighters with superior strength and wrestling.  His submission skills proved useless against an opponent who, for practical purposes, didn't have long enough arms to even arm bar.

In the main event, Brian Bowles faced challenger Dominic Cruz, a former featherweight undefeated at 135lbs.  Cruz' elusive but effective "monkey on meth" offense confused the audience, the camera operators, and most of all his opponent.  Bowles, who apparently broke his hand on the first punch, wasn't able to establish any rhythm against Cruz.  After not answering the bell for round 3, Cruz was given the TKO.  

An unsatisfying victory because of the injury, but that notwithstanding, Cruz' footwork, counter-punching and incredible timing combined with excellent wrestling were likely going to overwhelm Bowles anyway.  His game plan and execution were a lot to overcome, broken hand or not.

Cruz looks now to defend against Benavidez, whom he defeated via decision on his way to the belt.

The WEC is replete with sub-lightweight talent, and styles as a factor in the outcome of any given matchup seem to be amplified at these lighter weights.  Something about the speed, the power-to-weight ratios...I'm sure there's a calculus function that describes the relationship.  Anyway pretty exciting stuff to watch.

Let's hope Miguel gets back on track.  Anymore he may be at a distinct disadvantage at bantamweight, with his lanky physique and brawling style.  Cruz, Benavidez and Bowles have enough talent between them to keep Torres away from the 135-lb belt.